Gold for storing wealth.

Gold for storing wealth

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.63).

#gold. #gold price, #gold investment, #gold sale B.O.E., #tribal memory,

Gold for storing wealth.

Human productivity varies wildly and each person needs some method to store the surplus from his periods of high productivity for use during periods of low productivity. Gold can be used for storing that surplus or wealth over long periods.

Gold is also a highly sought after commodity with stable price, and its owner can be sure that his surplus/wealth will not disappear overnight.

However gold is not a good investment as any interest earned by lending gold bars is really small (no more than 1%). Only jewellers borrow gold bars. They want to avoid resupplying their stock at New Years and wedding seasons.

1. Gold is in constant demand.

1a. Jewellery industry and hand-craft jewellers needs it. This is due to its lustre, malleability and corrosion resistance properties.

1b. Micro electronic industry needs it to make electrically high conductance terminals and connections.

1c. Micro engineering industry needs it to prevent rust and corrosion of their mechanical components.

1d. Electronic, optical, aviation and building industries need it to make transparent metallic films.

1e. Dentistry also needs it for dental works.

1f. Surgical medicine needs it for non-allergic implants.

2. Gold is a suitable bartering medium.

2a. Gold is in constant demand.

2b. If unsold, its owner can gradually turn it into home made jewelleries and sell to his neighbours.

2c. The cost of extracting gold from the ground is remarkably unchanged over thousands of years. Advances in technology is exactly offset by scarcity. Now people have to go 3km deep below the ground to mine gold in South Africa and in Canada ([4]). Soon they may go 4km deep below ground surface to mine gold.

2d. It is corrosion resistant and does not degrade with time.

2e. Any small, light amount of gold still has a high value.

2f. Any common amount of gold can be easily subdivided.

2g. The gold content of any unprocessed gold can be economically assayed and extracted using only HNO3, HCl and Cu. The extraction process is based on a simple metal displacement reaction of Au ions in aqua regia and is a common excercise for gold jewelers.
So gold satisfies all the requirements for being a bartering medium.

3. Gold price is not over-inflated.

The long term average of gold price reflects its utility value.
The price is not over-inflated due to massive amount in storage by various Government Central Banks in the World. They would grab any opportunity to sell their overpriced stocks. The Bank of England (wrongly?) set its selling price at US$268/troy oz in its massive unloading of 200tons of gold in the period of 1999-2002.

If gold price was held up by the vicious cycle of greed-herd mentality, the cycle would have been broken up by the prolonged heavy attack by the sale from Bank of England.

Despite such tremendous attack on its price by Bank of England, gold price did not collapse like the price of tulips or real estates when their bubbles bursted.

Right after the end of its massive sale, gold price rose up to US$600/troy oz, then to the current price of US$1000+/troy oz. The sustainable price is explained by the difficulty in extracting gold from the ground [4](see also [7]; I had invested in gold miners during the low price period of 1990-2000 and had experienced at first hand the details claimed by its author).

So, contrary to claims (propaganda?) by some authors, the average price of gold is neither pushed up by any remnant of prehistoric tribal memory nor pushed up by greed, fear and herd mentality (A lie told once remains a lie but a lie told a thousand times becomes the truth [6].).

4. Using and buying gold.

Vietnamese Gold Slab

Figure: Vietnamese gold slabs for trading. This standardized slab has 37.5g of 99.99% pure gold and has been issued in individual, clear, sealed plastic bubble. Its SJC trade mark is vigorously defended by the Vietnamese government. The last 4 digits of the serial number DB 1XXXX on this slab have been blurred to protect the privacy of the owner of the slab.
4a. When gold possession is legal, people can use any suitable amount they like. They still have to stick to unprocessed gold from reputable producers.
The Vietnamese government owns the Vietnamese company SJC which issues and trade gold slabs with weghts of 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 Vietnamese ounces. The trade mark SJC is vigourously defended by Vietnamese government. The photos of one such Vietnamese 1 once (37.5g) slab are shown here in this section. SJC company sells people these gold slabs and also buy back from them.

4b. When possession of unprocessed gold is prohibited, people still can use gold rings made by reputable jewellers in weights of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 troy ounces as their medium of exchange.

5. The costs of owning gold.

(This section has been added on 10 Aug 2017)

This varies a lot from country to country and even gold seller to gold seller. It can be anywhere between 0.6% and 2.5% for a complete cycle of buying and immediate reselling.

For example, on the date of 10 Aug 2017, the prices and sell-buy margins are:

0.55% in Vietnam, Saigon (SJC gold TP HCM 36,350,000 36,150,000)

2.5% in Australia, Melbourne, (1oz ABC Bullion Pool Allocated $1,638.30 $1,598.81)

In Vietnam, the cost for buying and then immediately reselling gold slabs (such as the one pictured in this blog) is about 0.55%. This compares well with the foreign exchange cost of 0.2% for buying USD then immediately reselling it.
On the other hand, the Vietnamese VND inflation rate has been designed to be 7% (= 4% against USD + 3% by USD),. Only after 1 monrhs the person who bought gold has already been ahead.

6. Storing wealth using gold.

Example: You want to buy a $80000 house and each year you can only save up $20000.

If you save your fiat money, then after 4 years you will have $80000. If yearly inflation is 6% the price of that house will be then

$8000×(1+6%)×(1+6%)×(1+6%)×(1+6%) = $100998 .

So you are $20998 short of your target!

If you bought gold for the first 3 and 1/2 years then after 4 years you will have in hand

$10000*(1.03)^7 + $10000*(1.03)^6 + $10000*(1.03)^5 + $10000*(1.03)^4 + $10000*(1.03)^3 + $10000*(1.03)^2 + $10000*(1.03) (gold to sell) + $10000(cash)

= $10000*((1.03)^8-1)/((1.03)-1) = $10000*8.89233 = $88,923.

In this case you are only $100998 – $88923 = $12075 short of your target!

So gold is much better than cash (fiat money) for storing wealth. You are still short of target since the actual value of your new cash saving reduces every year.

7. Conclusions.

Gold is much better than cash even in any medium term (abour 3 years duration) financial plan.

You can also see why many governments want to outlaw the possession of unprocessed gold: Their fiat currencies are inferior to gold.

Please note that this author is neither associated with gold industry nor having any interest/betting on gold price movement.

Disclosure of interests:

The author has no interest in any gold price betting, has neither relation with SJC of Vietnam, nor with any organization working on gold.

References:

[1]. ,

[2]. Cashless bartering for survival, posted on February 20, 2017,

[3]. tonytran2015, , https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2016/12/05/preparing-for-%e2%80%8bcashless-trading, posted on December 5, 2016

[4]. top ten deepest mines world South Africa, http://www.mining-technology.com/features/feature-top-ten-deepest-mines-world-south-africa/

[5]. Sale of UK gold reserves, 1999–2002, wikipedia, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sale_of_UK_gold_reserves,_1999%E2%80%932002

[6]. Joseph Goebbels quotes, azquotes.com, http://www.azquotes.com/author/5626-Joseph_Goebbels.

[7]. https://peoplestrusttoronto.wordpress.com/2017/05/12/the-traitors-abetting-the-deep-states-dirty-dying-war-on-gold/, accessed and added to the list on 13May2017.

Augmented after 2017 June 11:

[8]. https://us-issues.com/2017/06/11/how-gold-can-rescue-pensions/

[9]. https://centinel2012.com/2018/05/04/the-us-two-tier-monetary-system-that-ended-in-1971/

[10]. https://brittius.wordpress.com/2018/05/05/uae-drops-vat-on-gold/

[11]. http://www.goldtelegraph.com/the-u.s-government-can-still-confiscate-gold

[12]. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/blog/

[13]. https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/has-the-pboc-taken-control-of-the-gold-market.html

[14]. https://lawrieongold.com/2018/07/18/how-to-avoid-gold-and-silver-investment-scams/

[15]. https://bcnn1wp.wordpress.com/2018/07/29/russia-mysteriously-liquidates-all-of-its-u-s-treasury-holdings/

[16]. https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2018/08/gold-yuan-crypto/

[17]. http://www.zealllc.com/2001/boebomb.htm

[18]. https://lawrieongold.com/2018/08/06/gold-lessons-from-venezuela/

[19]. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1434633628.php

[20]. https://us-issues.com/2018/08/12/price-of-gold-in-venezuela/

[21]. https://goldprice.org/gold-price-australia.html

[22]. https://www.rt.com/business/441807-emerging-countries-stockpiling-gold/

[23]. http://asheepnomore.net/2017/06/13/hillary-emails-reveal-nato-killed-gaddafi-to-stop-libyan-creation-of-gold-backed-currency/

Tuesday’s announcement by the Department of Justice of a guilty plea by a former trader of JPMorgan for systemic “spoofing” and price manipulation of gold, silver, platinum and palladium traded on the COMEX and NYMEX futures exchanges (owned by the CME Group) sure seemed like a very big deal …. The infractions occurred from 2009 to 2015 and the trader admitted to engaging in a conspiracy to commit market manipulation on hundreds of occasions, with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. [24, 25]

[24]. http://silverseek.com/commentary/crack-dike-17474

[25]. https://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2018/11/10/a-crack-in-the-gold-silver-manipulation-dike/

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The Parasites of Western Economy, Part 1: Motorvehicle Insurance Scammers.

The Parasites of Western Economy, Part 1: Motorvehicle Insurance Scammers

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.62).

#parasite, #motor vehicle, #transportation, #insurance, #scam, #rip off

The Parasites of Western Economy, Part 1: Motorvehicle Insurance Scammers.

If you have ever been to Vietnam, you will see more than 40 million motorbikes on the roads. They go on their daily routines, occasionally causing minor accidents and damage but people don’t threaten their road sharers with law suits. Owning a motorbike there is thus mostly an advantage and very rarely a liability (it is so only when the owner is outrageously stupid). How can they do that and why cannot Westerners do it?
They can do it because they have not been brainwashed and enslaved by Vehicle Insurance Parasites.

1. The Vietnamese way of handling non-fatal traffic accidents.


1a. If you lose a small paint scratch then consider it part of wear and tear of a quickly depreciating asset. You have to be tolerant to the other party who may be inexperienced just like you years ago, when you were young, or may be just like your kids.
1b. If you lose a turn indicator lamp then consider who has more damage and remain tolerant:
If the other party suffers no damage and is clearly at fault then ask him to pay a realistic repair cost to you right on the spot.
On the other hand, if he suffers much more damage than you do then consider that you have been lucky not to get hurt and he has already been taught a good traffic lesson.
1c. If your motorbike is badly damage:
You may ask the other party to pay for the actual repair costs and usually he will agree to it or beg you to let him pay by installments or only part of it.
You should think that accident avoidance is the responsibility of both him and YOU. Be tolerant and consider who suffers more damage.

2. The Enslaved Litigious English way of handling non-fatal traffic accidents.


2a. If you lose a small paint scratch then force the other party to follow a costly legal course of arguments to assign faults and threaten the other party with a law suit to take away his house. On the other hand, if you are at fault, you still employ a lawyer to reply to the other party that you won’t pay even a single cent for his fair repairs cost.
2b. If you lose a turn indicator lamp then take your vehicle to a shop that will try to assign hundreds of small previous wear and tear to the accident and ask the other party to pay for all that. You will hope to have a partially brand new vehicle after those repairs.
The reality would turn out that the shop WILL POCKET most of the costs and you will ONLY have the main damage shoddily repaired: You have been used by the repairer to scam money on the poor other party! Do you want to sue the repairer (your former partner in crime!) now?
2c. If your motorbike is badly damaged:
You may ask the other party to pay for the (often pretended) psychological damage for fear of traffic, plus inflated repair costs.

3. Where does the money go in the Enslaved Litigious English World?


3a. You pay the lawyers to threaten one another unnecessarily. All of you are forced to join insurance schemes and pay their excessive costs to avoid being threatened.
3b. You pay the lawyers to play expensive legal games. You also pay excessive repair costs to non-existent repairs.
3c. You pay the lawyers to play legal games to rip off other insurance contributors on pretended psychological injuries. You also pay excessive repair costs to non-existent repairs.
(See references [1,2]).

4. Parasites ripping-off your transportation system.


You now know why transportation costs are so expensive in English speaking White countries. There are parasites feeding on your transportation costs, you are enslaved into paying annual insurance premiums that is about 5 times the cost of the actual repairs if paid out directly by owners instead.
There used to be Mutual typed Insurance Companies (AMP, Colonial Mutual, NRMA) which are not for profit organizations (such as NRMA motor vehicle Insurance for member). The financiers had successfully used immoral ways to rip off the Mutual funds to give money contributed by many previous generations of members to directors and fund members at that only time. The rip off was called “Demutualization” (around 1995 in Australia). Those mutual insurers were then wound up to leave the market to only for profit insurers. Without competition from those non-profit organizations, insurance premiums have shot up.
You should demand a law reform to reduce the legal rip-offs by transport insurance schemes.
I am no fan of the political system in Vietnam but I admire the way the population there cooperates in their daily commutation. At least, each Westerner should experience the rip-off free transportation system in Vietnam (before it become infected by the Insurance associated parasites) to know how much you have been ripped-off by the parasites..
It should be remembered that a fish won’t know that it is in water unless it can somehow, sometimes jump out of the water.

References:

[1]. wikipedia Compensation_culture, accessed 05May2017.

[2]. www.iaapa.org CompensationCulturePuttnam.pdf, accessed 05May2017.

[3]. the car insurance industry is a disgusting racket, https://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/the-car-insurance-industry-is-a-disgusting-racket/

[4]. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/jun/27/jack-straw-car-insurance-racket

[5]. http://trafficlaw.com.au/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3737

[6]. ALEKS DEVIC, Car crash racket runs rampant in Victoria, with thousands left without car, huge bills, Herald Sun, http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/car-crash-racket-runs-rampant-in-victoria-with-thousands-left-without-car-huge-bills/news-story/f0f217204e4c959ac67fe7f1f18abf3c , May 22, 2016 9:00pm

Added after 2017 Dec 28:

[7]. http://asic.gov.au/about-asic/media-centre/find-a-media-release/2016-releases/16-049mr-insurers-take-car-buyers-for-a-ride/

[8]. https://www.moneysmart.gov.au/insurance/car-insurance/add-on-insurance

[9]. https://consumeraction.org.au/junk-insurance-and-rubbish-warranties/

INSURANCES WITH NO VALUE

[10]. http://straightlinelogic.com/2018/04/29/and-yet-another-wells-fargo-banking-scandal-by-simon-black/

ADD ON INSURANCE

Swann, owned by IAG, only paid out around 10 per cent of the $1.07 billion in add-on insurance premiums it collected over a 10-year period, the royal commission has heard.

[11]. http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-18/banking-royal-commission-live-blog/10262384

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Understanding the Strategy of Conquering by Over-populating

Understanding the Strategy of Conquering by Over-populating

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.61).

#Foreign Affairs #Conquering by #Over-populating, #expansion #immigration.
This concept is not new in East Asia but may be unknown to White policy makers.

1. Steps of Conquering by Over-populating.

Suppose that a populous country C wants to conquer its neighbour M but has no military capability. Country C may use over-population to conquer M by carrying out the following steps:

1. Country C promotes good friendship and trade with M so that M relaxes its border control.

2. Country C then sends its most patriotic, fecund families into M as guest workers and traders. They will give birth to many children while in country M.

3. If country M has lax immigration and citizenship laws many 2nd and subsequent generations of immigrants/guest workers/traders will become Citizens of M only in name while remain Loyal oversea-born Citizens of C. ([7]).

4. These new “Citizens of M with Foreign Loyaty” now try to have many children to outnumber the native Citizens of M.

5. When the ratio of “Citizens of M with Foreign Loyaty” is significant, country M will he in no doubt influenced by C. The level of influence increases years after years as the new citizens originating from C have been selected to be most fecund and may legally receive birth incentives from country C.

6. When 51% of the votes are controled by citizens with origin from C, a referendum will be called to open or abolish the border between C and M.

7. Few referenda may fail but eventually the border will be abolished and C and M will be unified without using wars.

2. Applications.

Over-populating until extinction of local populations can be found in East Asian history books (including the references given here) but are too sensitive to be posted here. The followings are only the obvious cases.

1. The original size of the (Chinese) Zhao empire in China was of only a size of current Japan. Expansionism either by overt military occupations or by Occupation by Over-populating has produced the present China of gigantic size. People have wonder how many Chineses of (self-declared) Han origin were in that giant area 2000 years ago.

2. The hereditary citizenship rules of Qing dynasty (1644–1912) of China may have been an attempt to have their leagues of Loyal Oversea-born Citizens. The revival of any such plan must be closely scrutinized by the countries with those citizens (in name only).

3. An example of the strategy in Europe is the present (2017) Turkish address to Muslims in the West. It may be considered the Ottoman Empire addressing its Loyal Oversea-born Citizens.

3. Prevention.

1. Immigrations from populous, poor countries into any wealthy country always carry such a risk. The host country should ensure that no group of immigrants can over-populate the native population.

2. Undue lobbying by some group of immigrants is the warning sign of coming loss of control by the host country.

3. A country with many immigrant new citizens should be well alerted for any programs directed at Loyal oversea-born Citizens from their countries of origins.

4. Terrible inter-ethnic fightings (such as in Rwanda some few decades ago) should be prevented by insisting on assimilation.

4. Conclusions.

It takes few hundred years for a populous country to practice this strategy until fruition. But one hundred years is only a short duration in recorded history.

Sun Tzu said that the best victories are ones won without using the armies.

References

[1]. Sima Qian, Records of History by the grand historian (translated by Burton Watson), Qin Dynasty, Han Dynasty I (Rev. Ed.) and Han Dynasty II (Rev. Ed.), the Res. Cent. for Transl. The Chinese Univ. of Hon Kong and Colubia Univ. Press, Hong Kong and New York, 1961.

[2]. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. First published in Chinese before 200BC. There are English translations.

[3]. tonytran2015, understanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours, https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/01/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours/

[4]. tonytran2015, understanding-the-strike-then-consolate-tactic, https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-the-strike-then-consolate-tactic/

[5]. anti-west-statements-turkish-president-erdogan-and-pm-davutoglu-muslim-countries-must-unite, http://www.memri.org, https://www.memri.org/reports/anti-west-statements-turkish-president-erdogan-and-pm-davutoglu-muslim-countries-must-unite

[6]. https://vikinglifeblog.wordpress.com/2017/04/30/demographic-genocide-2/

The following have been added after 09 May 2017.

[7]. chinese-ucsd-students-protest-unreasonable-dalai-lama-invite-paid-by-red china,

http://www.capoliticalreview.com/capoliticalnewsandviews/chinese-ucsd-students-protest-unreasonable-dalai-lama-invite-paid-by-red-china/

[8]. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-26/chinese-tech-company-huawei-sponsors-politicians-trips/9907064

[9]. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/minister-admits-liu-paid-for-trips/news-story/ed90f41f26a9c8c367ece7d27bba8b05?sv=91437a39b1f64b7593eba9705ba2142f

[10]. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/foreign-minister-julie-bishops-links-to-chinese-political-donors-20160823-gqzauy.html

[11]. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/aug/04/labors-tony-burke-made-two-free-trips-to-china-with-lobby-firm-last-year

[12]. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/12/stuart-robert-loses-job-as-minister-following-china-trip-furore

[13]. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-31/paul-keating-warns-australia-to-prepare-for-the-rise-of-china/7800062

[14]. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-28/john-howard-warns-china-could-use-expats-to-grow-power-in-region/9918114

[15]. http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-08/china-angry-australian-anti-espionage-laws-political-unity/9848116

[16]. https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/australia-bans-covert-foreign-interference-politics-56228286

[17]. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/21/china-considers-scrapping-two-child-policy.html

[18]. https://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/world/asia/china-end-one-child-policy.html

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Understanding the concept of Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours.

Understanding the concept of Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.60).

#Foreign Affairs #Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours #alliance, #China, #expansion, #aggression, #war, #US, #neighbour country, #Japan, #India, #Korea, #Burma, #Mongolia.

Understanding the Concept of Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours.

Contrary to Westerners’ impression, China is not ruled by successive descendents of an Empire founder for thousands of years. Actually, there are many successive empires in China, each killing all eligible inheritors and most officials of the previous empire to grab its power and to prevent its resurgence. The new empire then restored and continued to use most Citadels built by the previous empire.

Except for a short period of the Zhao dynasty (who ruled by being virtuous but was therefore bullied by their own followers), whatever empire occupying the Central Citadel always practice Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours.

1. The central empire state and its surrounding vassal states.

The ruling Emperor always has to award his contributing followers while keeping them under control.
The empire is carved into many vassal states (each is a miniature copy of the central state but having to pay annual tributes to the Emperor) awarded hereditarily to the contributing followers of the emperor. The vassal states sometimes wage wars among themselves, their boundaries are not fix but always change due to wars/feuds between their rulers. Sometimes the Emperor has to intervene to stop wars among his vassal states.

The ancestors (in name, but not biologically) of the founder of the Qin Empire were followers of the Zhao emperors and had been awarded the vassal state of Qin, but they successfully bullied the Zhao Emperors to gradually rob their land and their throne.

2. Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours (within the empire).

The desire is understandable. Chinese history has shown many stories of rebellion by trusted officials to steal the Emperor’s throne and wives.

On a national level, each emperor let his most trusted generals be the rulers of distant non-prosperous vassal states. The distant governors have no chance of becoming more powerful than the Emperor, but they can be recalled to subdue any rebellious official in the Emperor’s court.

3. Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours (on international level).

There are times when the central state of the empire is threatened by another stronger empire/nation (for examples the Huns Nomades, the Jin Dynasty, the Mongolian Empire of Ghanghi Khan, the Manchurian Empire.)

Figure: The (Southern) Song Dynasty allying to the distant Mongolia to defeat its immediate neighbour (Northern) Jin.

In that case, the Enperor will pretend to find new markets and send trade emissaries to third (and maybe fourth and fifth) countries behind the back of the undesirably strong neighbour. Trade talks with those countries may soon become secret talks of alliance for double thronged attacks on the undesirably strong neighbour ! The spoils of wars will be divided among “allies” according to their contributions.

It is known that 2000 years ago, China has reached distant countries like Persia, various non-united nomadic countries in Siberia. The purpose was not purely for trading. It was to keep open the possibilities for alliance against immediate neighbours of the empire.

4. Applications.

Vietnam (Annam in Chinese history) was never a Chinese land and has revolted against Chinese occupations. China used to ally itself with the Southern neighbours of Vietnam (Champa some 400 years ago, and Khmer Rouge recently) for many plans for double pronged attack on Vietnam.

India is a Southern neighbour of China. The method calls for an alliance with Sri Lanka and provoking wars between the two harmonious neighbours India and Sri Lanka.

Burma has a common boundary with China. Its national cohesion is declining. The country would be a suitable candidate for application of China’s all three policies of Forever Expanding, Strike-then-Consolate, Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours. A suitable ally for China would be some revolting Minorities in the South (see [5]).

North Korea is a neighbour of China but historically had fought against China. Its is always on guard against China surprise overrun (Tibet typed operation). China makes pressure on it by opening trade with its Capitalist opponent South Korea. China may also ally with the US to attack and occupy North Korea at some convenient time. Territorial gains would have to be kept by China as the huge occupation army would logically be Chinese. (This whole paragraph was written before 05 April 2017 and publish before the meeting between US and Chinese leaders in 06 April 2017. Events after publication date now unfold almost exactly along these predictions.)

References
[1]. tonytran2015, understanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours, https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/01/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours/

[2]. tonytran2015, understanding-the-strike-then-consolate-tactic, https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-the-strike-then-consolate-tactic/

[3]. Sima Qian, Records of History by the grand historian (translated by Burton Watson), Qin Dynasty, Han Dynasty I (Rev. Ed.) and Han Dynasty II (Rev. Ed.), the Res. Cent. for Transl. The Chinese Univ. of Hon Kong and Colubia Univ. Press, Hong Kong and New York, 1961.

[4]. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. First published in Chinese before 200BC. There are English translations.

[5]. myanmar and china are almost at war, http://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2017/01/03/myanmar-and-china-are-almost-at-war/

Added after 2018 July 31st:

[6]. https://counterinformation.wordpress.com/2018/07/31/isis-is-a-us-israeli-creation-top-ten-indications/
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Understanding the Strike-then-Consolate Tactic.

Understanding the Strike-then-Consolate Tactic

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.59).

#Foreign affair, #Militarized diplomacy, #Aggression, #Strike then Consolate, #Mutual Cooperations, #Phillipines, #China, #South China Sea.

The current (1990 to 2017) situation on the Scarborough Shoal (Dao Vanh Khan as claimed by Vietnam) in the Sea of West Phillipines is interesting ([2,3]), It offers an example of the Tactic of Strike-then-Consolate in “mititarized diplomacy”.

Its resultant “mutual cooperations” are then revealed as only part of a long term plan for further aggression.

1. Concept of Strike-then-Consolate.

The aggressor nation finds an opportunity to attack the victim nation and makes territorial gains. Right after that, before international reaction can develop, the aggressor offers to give back half the gains to make peace with the weaker victim. The weak victim may accept that offer if it cannot rely on internarional help or if its unpopular leader wants to make external peace to have time to strengthen his grip on domestic power (that is its leader sacrifies national interests to further his own personal gains).

The cycle may be repeated many times to make a vacillating nation out of the victim to isolate it from its allies.

2. Application of Strike-then-Consolate.

2a. The aggressor nation looks for a neighbour with unpopular leader. Failing that it may make one by promoting corruptions, non-transparent dealings in that country to weaken the popular support for its government.

2b. When popular support of the government of the intended victim nation has reached a low point, the aggressor creates economic, environmental, social chaos to brew anti-government protests, uprisals and revolts.

2c. The defence of the victim nation is then dispirited and weakened.

2d. A quick military attack is carried out for territorial gains.

2e. A peace delegate is immediately sent to the victim nation to offer peace with the return of half of the territorial gains together with some economic aids! “Mutual Cooperations” are part of the package of economic “aids” by the aggressor to its victim.

2f. The victim nation then consolates itself that it can get benefit from “Mutual Cooperation” with its aggressor and demotes its effective but hard line leaders in its defence force.

2g. The aggressor then executes its planned follow up military strike while the defence force of the victim has no established effective leader.

2h. The victim nation then desperately search for new leaders for its defence forces and demotes its team of “Mutual Cooperation” advocates.

2i. The whole cycle (2e, 2f, 2g, 2h) is then repeated again and again so that the government of the victim nation is worn out and lose any of its remaining credibility through conflicting policies, continual reorganization, demotion and rehabitation of its personels. Any ally of the victim nation would not stick around with such a vacillating nation.

2j. When the government of the victim nation has lost its popular support, strength and credibility, the aggressor may take over its victim overtly or covertly.

(Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it._George Santayana)

3. “Mutual Cooperations” are never a fair deal.

“Mutual cooperations” from the aggressor always require from the victim nation the following conditions:

3a. Not to take the aggressor to any international authority.

3b. The victim nation giving unaccountable benefits to its deal makers (that is giving high rewards to those who favors the deal).

3c. The victim nation allowing personels of the aggressor to be in vital future positions.

3d. The victim nation demoting fervent nationalists in its defence force.

3e. The victim nation ceasing most of its defence industrial plans.

3f. The victim nation reorganizing its government and development plans to suit the aggressor.

4. So what are Mutual Cooperations in reality?

Mutual Cooperations are only a conditional surrender to the aggressor.

Sun Tzu [1] said that the best victory is a victory gained without using the army!

References
[1]. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. First published in Chinese before 200BC.

(The following are augmented after 09 May 2017).
[2]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2017/05/09/manila-beijing-dating-again-who-is-the-screwer-screwed/

[3]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2017/04/22/philippines-china-south-china-row-talk-of-establishing-a-no-take-zone-apparently-to-counter-chinas-talk-and-take-strategy/

Added after 2017 November:

[4]. https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_Santayana

[5]. https://us-issues.com/2017/11/16/south-china-sea-feud/

[6]. https://joeam.com/2018/02/16/how-do-we-get-out-of-this-mess/

[7]. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349

[8]. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3341308-bbc-vietnam-scraps-south-china-sea-drilling-project-amid-chinese-pressure

[9]. https://www.theguardian.com/world/south-china-sea

[10]. https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/xi-reviews-navy-might-in-contested-waters-of-south-china-sea-20180413-p4z9f0.html

[11]. http://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/04/12/18/us-displays-military-muscle-as-carrier-sails-in-south-china-sea

[9]. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21290349

[10]. https://bcnn1wp.wordpress.com/2018/04/15/japan-and-chinas-foreign-ministers-pledge-to-improve-ties-between-their-nations/

[11]. https://vikinglifeblog.wordpress.com/2018/05/07/china-builds-peaceful-missile-launchers-in-south-china-sea/

[12]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/05/13/south-china-sea-the-philippines-sees-a-growing-reality-we-are-the-ones-who-are-being-left-behind-here/

[13]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/05/19/chinas-bombers-in-south-china-sea-can-hit-any-target-in-the-philippines/

[14]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/05/08/philippines-learns-a-hard-lesson-about-china-china-does-whatever-china-pleases/

BRIBING BY FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS

[15]. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-26/chinese-tech-company-huawei-sponsors-politicians-trips/9907064

[16]. https://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-andrew-robb-took-880k-china-job-as-soon-as-he-left-parliament-20170602-gwje3e.html

[17]. https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/12/china-stooge-robb-gets-comeuppance/

SOUTH EAST ASIAN SEA DISPUTES

[18]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/09/10/china-poised-to-win-major-victory-in-sea-dispute-with-help-of-philippine-resources-deal/

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Understanding China’s perpetual wars against its neighbours.

Understanding China’s perpetual wars against its neighbours

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.58).

#Chinese expansionism, #China, #expansion, #war, #US, #Japan.

This blog explains to Westerners the politics of East Asia which seems incomprehensible to them but not that incomprehensible to East Asians.

1. Origin of policy of Forever Expanding.

Since Han’s time (200+ BC), at his Coronation, every Emperor of China must swear to forever expand the territories of the Chinese Empire (in direct contrast to the pledge of non-aggression of Western Empires).

The Forever Expanding policy is called Silkworms Eating the Berry Leaves since the Qin Dynasty (preceding the Han Dynasty) (see reference [1]).

The vast area of current China is the result of such Forever Expanding policy starting from a Zhou dynasty (1046BC-256BC) with an area only comparable to Japan.

Zhou_dynasty_1000_BC Châu

Figure: The approximate territory of the Zhou dynasty in China. Drawn by Ian Kiu.The approximate territory of the Zhou dynasty in China. Drawn by Ian Kiu. Derived from China_map.png by Nat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhou_dynasty#/media/File:Zhou_dynasty_1000_BC.png Date 15 February 2011, Territories_of_Dynasties_in_China.gif: Albert Herrmann (1935). History and Commercial Atlas of China. Harvard University Press. from “The Chou Dynasty, 11th-9th Centuries B.C.” Author Territories_of_Dynasties_in_China.gif: Ian Kiu. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.

The Zhou empire had two powerful nominally vassal states Chu and Qin (one of Qin’s successor kings usurped the Zhou’s last emperor to become Emperor Qin Shih Huang De).

Figure: China Map, Qin State, 260BCE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qin_(state)#/media/File:EN-QIN260BCE.jpg , Date 31 October 2010
Source Own work, Author Philg88, Licensing
Creative Commons attribution share alike. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported, 2.5 Generic, 2.0 Generic and 1.0 Generic license.

Figure: Map of Three Kingdoms period of China, as of 262 A.D., Date1 1 August 2017, Author SY, file https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Three_Kingdoms.png. File is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.

Figure: Map of Song Dynasty 1141, By Ian Kiu, Based on a map in Albert Herrmann (1935). History and Commercial Atlas of China, Harvard University Press , file https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jin%E2%80%93Song_Wars#/media/File:Sung_Dynasty_1141.png. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.

Figure: Map of Qing Dynasty China in 1765., File: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/18_century_Qing_China.png . Date 1-8-2011 Source Originally from CIA, taken from commons. Author CIA (Background map) Derivate work: User:Soewinhan. This image is a work of a Central Intelligence Agency employee, taken or made as part of that person’s official duties. As a Work of the United States Government, this image or media is in the public domain in the United States.

Figure: Map of China on a Chinese glass Globe made around the year 2000.

2. Methods of upholding the pledge.

2a. The Chinese Emperor is expected to carry out overt aggression on any unprepared neighbour. No causis bellum is required. There is no place for Morality in Chinese Foreign Affairs policy: The winner is the Moral Authority! Winning the unprovoked war is the highest objective of “Chinese Morality (or Immorality?)”.

2b. If overt aggression has no chance to succeed, the Emperor has to subvert to weaken his neighbours with corruptions and unfair trade practices (economic sabotage and graftings are standard practice).

2c.The Chinese Emperor declares that he is the sole Son of Heaven and communicates all sovereign matters to Heaven. All neighbours have to communicate through him. He will abuse this role to aggravate internal wars on successions in neighbour countries. He will then use his “Representative Authority of Heaven” to stage occupation wars on neighbour countries under the pretext of upholding Heavenly Order.

The revered, 2000 years old manual “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu is always practiced by China. It considers military attacks, foreign affairs and trades as only different facets of one single thing. (This is not much different from the view by Clausewitz[3])

3. Application of the “Forever Expanding” policy.

Strategically China IS at perpetual war with every of its neighbours (including Russia) and distant powers (including USA). Technically, China try NOT to declare or be declared at war!

Its strategy is to wear down opponents psychologically with successive alternating cycles of military threats, propaganda, then trade wars and then offers of “mutual cooperations” until any one of its opponents is psychologically worn out, weakened enough for singling out, isolated and over-run with a surprise attack by its huge army. The strategy is more than 2000 years old but is still effective.

Its offer of “mutual cooperations” (such as currently to the Phillipines) is actually part of an attack plan, as it wears down the opponent with chaos and loss caused by continual reorientations.

Western leaders DON’T know that strategy but Japaneses and East Asians know it well. China is more worried about a half-armed Japan than about a fully armed US! (Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it._George Santayana).

References

[1]. Sima Qian, Records of History by the grand historian (translated by Burton Watson), Qin Dynasty, Han Dynasty I (Rev. Ed.) and Han Dynasty II (Rev. Ed.), the Res. Cent. for Transl. The Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong and Colubia Univ. Press, Hong Kong and New York, 1961.

[2]. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. First published in Chinese before 200BC.
[3]. Carl von Clausewitz, Principles of Wars, Translated by Hans W. Gatzke, The Military Service Publishing Company, 1942.
[4]. Clausewitz, On War, Translated by Colonel James John Graham N. Trübner, London, 1873. Original is Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege, Dümmlers Verlag, Berlin, 1832.
[5]. Carl von Clausewitz, Principles of Wars, The Clausewitz home page, https://www.clausewitz.com/mobile/principlesofwar.htm
The following have been added after 09 May 2017.
[6]. chinese-ucsd-students-protest-unreasonable-dalai-lama-invite-paid-by-red china,
[7]. http://www.capoliticalreview.com/capoliticalnewsandviews/chinese-ucsd-students-protest-unreasonable-dalai-lama-invite-paid-by-red-china/
[8]. https://us-issues.com/2017/11/17/to-counter-china-india-pushes-east/
[9]. https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_Santayana

[10]. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarim_mummies

[11]. https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/38408261/china-island-expansion-moves-ahead-in-south-china-sea/

Added after 2017 December:

[12]. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-42232178

[13]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhou_dynasty

[14]. https://kousdas.wordpress.com/2018/01/13/doesnt-india-vie-for-others-territories/

[15]. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Military_Classics

[16]. http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-20/south-china-sea-australian-warships-challenged-by-chinese/9677908

[17]. https://us-issues.com/2018/05/08/what-beijing-is-building-in-the-south-china-sea/

[18]. https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/what-beijing-building-south-china-sea?utm_campaign=B2C%20|%20Newsletter%20|%20050218%20|%20ChinaSea&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=62596681&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_v4RqK9rrPAUsqz1jHgPlvidsf4K6WBmEJQbx2jZFzTIouD4UfVgX9SyPZ9NH40PrDxCLyf2X7Prv41ZaZc3bLCLGBrswoH4eaZZq6G5cIOzflrI8&_hsmi=62596714

[19]. https://thedefenstar.com/2018/05/19/china-to-use-taiwan-as-a-nuclear-and-conventional-military-base-to-isolate-india-japan-us-lawmaker/

[20]. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-22/fbi-cia-sound-alarm-over-china-cold-war-wray-says-most-significant-threat-facing-us

[21]. https://straightlinelogic.com/2018/09/01/doug-casey-on-chinas-exploitation-of-africa/

[22]. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-uighur-muslims-re-education-camps-detention-xinjiang-a8515631.html

[23]. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/aug/07/why-uighur-muslims-across-china-are-living-in-fear

[24]. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-26414014

[25]. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/china-pathologizing-uighur-muslims-mental-illness/568525/

[26]. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-45364689

[27]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/09/29/vietnam-taiwan-malaysia-and-the-philippines-struggle-to-understand-chinas-views-on-law-sovereignty/

[28]. https://wentworthreport.com/2018/10/23/swap-russia-for-china-and-were-again-at-war-its-just-a-cold-fact/

They were found by a Chinese team that was led by Professor Zhaoyu Zhu of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and included Professor Robin Dennell of Exeter University. The tools were discovered at a locality called Shangchen in the southern Chinese Loess Plateau. The oldest are ca. 2.12 million years old, and are c. 270,000 years older than the 1.85 million year old skeletal remains and stone tools from Dmanisi, Georgia, which were previously the earliest evidence of humanity outside Africa.

[29]. https://scientificinquirer.com/2018/08/31/artifacts-found-in-china-revises-date-humans-arrived-in-asia/

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