by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).
#Foreign affair, #Militarized diplomacy, #Aggression, #Strike then Consolate, #Mutual Cooperations, #Phillipines, #China, #South China Sea.
The current (1990 to 2017) situation on the Scarborough Shoal (Dao Vanh Khan as claimed by Vietnam) in the Sea of West Phillipines is interesting ([2,3]), It offers an example of the Tactic of Strike-then-Consolate in “mititarized diplomacy”.
Its resultant “mutual cooperations” are then revealed as only part of a long term plan for further aggression.
1. Concept of Strike-then-Consolate.
The aggressor nation finds an opportunity to attack the victim nation and makes territorial gains. Right after that, before international reaction can develop, the aggressor offers to give back half the gains to make peace with the weaker victim. The weak victim may accept that offer if it cannot rely on internarional help or if its unpopular leader wants to make external peace to have time to strengthen his grip on domestic power (that is its leader sacrifies national interests to further his own personal gains).
The cycle may be repeated many times to make a vacillating nation out of the victim to isolate it from its allies.
2. Application of Strike-then-Consolate.
2a. The aggressor nation looks for a neighbour with unpopular leader. Failing that it may make one by promoting corruptions, non-transparent dealings in that country to weaken the popular support for its government.
2b. When popular support of the government of the intended victim nation has reached a low point, the aggressor creates economic, environmental, social chaos to brew anti-government protests, uprisals and revolts.
2c. The defence of the victim nation is then dispirited and weakened.
2d. A quick military attack is carried out for territorial gains.
2e. A peace delegate is immediately sent to the victim nation to offer peace with the return of half of the territorial gains together with some economic aids! “Mutual Cooperations” are part of the package of economic “aids” by the aggressor to its victim.
2f. The victim nation then consolates itself that it can get benefit from “Mutual Cooperation” with its aggressor and demotes its effective but hard line leaders in its defence force.
2g. The aggressor then executes its planned follow up military strike while the defence force of the victim has no established effective leader.
2h. The victim nation then desperately search for new leaders for its defence forces and demotes its team of “Mutual Cooperation” advocates.
2i. The whole cycle (2e, 2f, 2g, 2h) is then repeated again and again so that the government of the victim nation is worn out and lose any of its remaining credibility through conflicting policies, continual reorganization, demotion and rehabitation of its personels. Any ally of the victim nation would not stick around with such a vacillating nation.
2j. When the government of the victim nation has lost its popular support, strength and credibility, the aggressor may take over its victim overtly or covertly.
(Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it._George Santayana)
3. “Mutual Cooperations” are never a fair deal.
“Mutual cooperations” from the aggressor always require from the victim nation the following conditions:
3a. Not to take the aggressor to any international authority.
3b. The victim nation giving unaccountable benefits to its deal makers (that is giving high rewards to those who favors the deal).
3c. The victim nation allowing personels of the aggressor to be in vital future positions.
3d. The victim nation demoting fervent nationalists in its defence force.
3e. The victim nation ceasing most of its defence industrial plans.
3f. The victim nation reorganizing its government and development plans to suit the aggressor.
4. So what are Mutual Cooperations in reality?
Mutual Cooperations are only a conditional surrender to the aggressor.
Sun Tzu  said that the best victory is a victory gained without using the army!
. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. First published in Chinese before 200BC.
(The following are augmented after 09 May 2017).
Added after 2017 November:
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