Solar Electricity Installations look like a gravy train.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia)

#solar electricity, #solar panel, #home installation, #return on investment, #gravy train, #subsidize, #economically inefficient,

Solar Electricity Installations look like a gravy train.

With electricity price running out of control, anticipated to hit 40c/kWh in the near future, I have to consider investing in a home system of Solar Panels to reduces my expenditure. The good news is there are some Solar Panels on sale at $150 per square meter and my friend can install them for me at a cost of $150 per square meter. So I drew up the following financial analysis for the prospective installation of 1m2 of panel. The results are quite surprising: Solar electricity is not matured enough to be economically competitive. The Green actions by Australian Governments are mostly a gravy train with well connected, greedy people already having First Class seats on it.

 

1. Assumptions leading to prospective installation

All currency are in Australian dollars

1. Electricity is to cost $0.40/kWh (This is on the high side, the current wholesale price for gas generated electricity is still below $0.15/kWh),

2. Solar Panels can be bought at $150/m2,

3. Total installation cost is only $150/m2,

4. There is no heavy disposal costs for discarded Solar Electricity components which contains lead and other pollutants.

2. The physical figures for Solar Panels.

a/- Solar energy flux is about 1000W/m2 before sunlight reaches the atmosphere.

b/- Average over 12 hours of the flux of daylight on equinoctial day reaching a panel pointing directly at the Sun at its midday is

1000W/m2*(2/3.14).

c/- However, not every house can mount a panel pointing at the Sun at midday on the equinoctial days. The panel is either mounted pointing too high or too low and oriented too much away from the noon position along the North-South direction.

Average of flux through roof slope panel is therefore reduced by a factor of 0.5. The solar energy flux through panel is therefore

1000W/m2*(2/3.14)*0.5

 

d/- Not everyday is a sunny day. So the average flux on the Panel needs to be reduced for this weather effect.
Average over cloudy and sunny days is

1000W/m2*(2/3.14)*0.5*0.3

 

e/- Average Solar radiation energy that can be collected daily is
(1000W/m2) *(2/3.14)*0.5*0.3*12

f/-Average daily energy that can be converted to electricity  is (assuming 17% of radiation energy can be converted into electricity)

(1000W/m2)*(2/3.14)*0.5*0.3*12*0.17 = 194Wh

g/- Electric Energy produced per year= 194*365 = 70,800Wh = 70.8kWh

h/- Retail Market Value of that daytime electricity generated in a year:

70.8kWh*$0.40/kWh = $28.3

3. Financial return for Solar Panels.

Maintenance and Depreciation cost (assuming 10% of installed value. The Panel is assumed to have a useful life of 20 years and the increases in roof maintenance cost has been included in this estimate)

10%*$300 = $30.

Insurance cost (between 1% and 3% of replacement value) as the Panel may get vandalized, stolen or damaged by rare 5cm hail storms in Melbourne.

(1% to 3%)*$300 = $3 to $9
Possible State levy on electricity from the system (A high possibility, as State Institutions still love building their empires.)

(0 to 50%)×$28.3 = 0 0to $14.1

Cost of the installed panel is at a rock bottom value of $300.

Yearly return on my Investment on Solar Panel on my own roof is:

Electricity – (Maintenance and Depreciation) – Insurance – possible State levy
$28.3 – $30 – $3 -($6) – ($14.1) = -$4.7 -($20.1)

That is there is a minimum annual loss of $4.70 with a possible additional loss of $20.1 when if the Insurer and the State Government decided to gouge my Solar Istallation

Return on Investment = -4.7/300 – (20.1/300) = -1.6% -(6.7%)

So the return is -1.6% but it can worsen to a heavy loss of  -8.3% when there is no borrowing.

4. Terrible loss on Solar Panels with borrowed money.

In the above financial analysis, the ROI (Return On Investment) has been based on own money.

If financing has been obtained from a bank, the ROI would have to be substracted by interest paid on borrored money and would be terrible. However the ROI may become positive if you can obtain Loan with NEGATIVE INTEREST (It is harder to find such loans than to extract kinetic energy from renewable earthquakes).

5. Governments cannot do any better.

I believe that US$120/m2 is the best value for Solar Panel in 2017. If any reader can find a cheaper price please write a comment so that I can update the ROI calculation.

The installation fee of AUD$150 is believed to be the best as my friend only gave such a low price to help with my prospective experimental installation.

Economy of scale does not work with non-transparent governments. Economy of scale do reduce the cost on packaging, transportation and marketing but CORRUPTION INCREASES EXPONENTIALLY WITH SCALE there.

So if individual cannot make profit, no government can unless:

a/- It can obtain Solar Panels for free (such as asking for war reparations from a rich vanquished nation like Iraq).

b/- It can have cheap Prisoners Labor for installation.

c/- It can collude with either domestic Power Generator Companies to jack up Electricity price or with Foreign Governments or Oganizations (such as Green Movements) to create artificial increases in Electricity price.

6. Follow the money on Green Projects spent by Governments .

Australian Governments since 2004 have spent national wealth (left by the John Howard Government) on MAD, UNJUSTIFIABLE WASTEFUL plans:

Subsidized (100% subsidization at $2000, under Kevin Rudd’s government) costly conversion of car to dual fuel (petrol plus LPG), installing $2000 system on old, $500 cars which become not economically viable after only few years of usage (the old car was sold for only the value of the dual fuel system).

Subsidized (100% subsidization at $2000, under Kevin Rudd’s government) costly but sloppy glass wool insulation of old house leading to many house fires caused by in glass wool impeding the ventilation flows of sunken lighting.

Subsidized (50% subsidization with $5000 government money, under Kevin Rudd’s government) costly, but ECONOMICALLY INEFFICIENT, Chinese Solar Panel Installations (They would not need any subsidization if they were efficient). The excess energy generated by the installation can be sold to the Grid at (crazily) More than Generator’s Electricity price (Locked in contracts were signed under Kevin Rudd’s government). The price paid to uneconomically produced excess energy to those house hold must come from the pockets of normal electricity users.

(It has now been known that Former PM Kevin Rudd has some family connections with some people with Chinese descent)

Having built no Fluorescent Lamp Disposal Facilities even after making the whole nation using almost only Fluorescent light sources. Mercury from discarded fluorescent lamp have not been mentioned by any Environmental Protection Agencies or Green Movements. Mercury is now an unmentioned threat lurking in Australian Wastes.

Local governments (Councils, Shires, Counties, …) now don’t concentrate on Waste Collection, Local Road Repairs, Local Libraries as required but get into the Conservation movements. They send out their “chosen” Green advocates to every home (in Maribyrnong Council) to replace 2 globes for the house holders with 2 new energy saving globe. The globes do save energy but the house hold will eventually pay for the replacement of those 2 globes at about $100 (in increases of Council annual rates on each household) while the two globes are worth only $15 and the householders can easily do the jobs.

6. Conclusions.

Solar electricity is not matured enough to be economically competitive. The Green actions by Australian Governments are mostly a gravy train with well connected, greedy people already having First Class seats on it. Just follow the money to find out the reasons for their actions.

References.

[1]. https://www.solarquotes.com.au/issolarworthit.html?utm_source=plista&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=aresolarpanelsworthitpl2

[2].  survivaltricks.wordpress.com,2017Sept28

[3].  , https://www.redarc.com.au/solar-faqs#7

[4]. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/energy-bills-households-paying-inflated-electricity-and-gas-prices/news-story/4f4c4ea257fddd0c1357546fa11dc470

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Harvest Moon Festival in East Asian Calendar

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#harvest Moon, #festival, #East Asia, #Luni-Solar, #calendar, #leap year, #leap month, #equinox, #solstice, #month naming,

Harvest Moon Festival in East Asian Calendar.

The calendar in East Asian countries (China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam) is a Luni-Solar calendar. The months of this calendar begins with each New Moon. A month is named based on the position of the Sun in the Celestial sphere during that month.

1. Naming of months in a Luni-Solar year.

In summary, the months are named according to the following rules:

11th month must encompass the Winter solstice day 21st of December,

12th month always follows 11 month,

1st month of next New Year always follows 12th month.

2nd month must encompass the Spring Equinox day of 21st of Mar,

3rd month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 30°

4th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 60°

5th month must encompass the Summer solstice day 21st of December,

6th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 120°

7th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 150°

8th month must encompass the Autumn Equinox day of 21st of September,

9th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 210°

10th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 240°

When a year has 13 months it will be called a leap year, the extra month will be called a leap month and that leap month will NOT satisfy any of the above conditions for naming. It will then bear the same name as the preceding month defined by the above rules. Due to the naming convention, there will be no leap month between month 11 and the 1st month of the following New Year.

 

2. Harvest Moon Festival.

The full Moon day of the 8th month is the day of  Harvest Moon Festival.

Therefore, East Asian Havest Moon Festival is always the Full Moon nearest to August 21st Equinox day.

3. Seasons in East Asian luni-solar calendar.

Seasons return after the stars in the sky have come back to their previous positions, that is after 365.25 days. Simple calculations [2] shows that each lunar month is 29.530 days. Two lunar months has a length of 59.06 days.

The luni-solar calendar used in China since ancient time has had Winter solstice falling on the 11th month of the year since more than 2000 years ago, since 113BC (Han Dynasty II p.38 [3]) .

4. Midnight stars can identify luni-solar months.

Country people often use stars to identify their luni-solar months. The following examples show how a bright star can be used to identify a month:

4th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 60°, its midnight stars should be of 240 degree R.A., and Delta Scorpii (240.22° R.A., –22.60° decl.) is almost its midnight star.

6th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 120°, its midnight stars should be of 300 degree R.A., and Altair of Aql (297.7° R.A., 8.85° decl.) is almost its midnight star.

1st month of next New Year always follows 12th month, Regulus of Leo (152.05° R.A., 12° decl.) is almost the midnight star for one night of that month.

 

References

[1]. tonytran2015, simple-determination-of-east-asia-lunisolar-new-year, survivaltricks.wordpress.com,

MoonShapesNAngles5C

[2]. tonytran2015, Finding North direction and time accurately from the horn line of the Moon, survivaltricks.wordpress.com, https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2015/08/12/finding-north-direction-and-time-accurately-from-the-horn-line-of-the-moon/

[3]. Sima Qian, Records of History by the grand historian (translated by Burton Watson), Qin Dynasty, Han Dynasty I (Rev. Ed.) and Han Dynasty II (Rev. Ed.), the Res. Cent. for Transl. The Chinese Univ. of Hon Kong and Colubia Univ. Press, Hong Kong and New York, 1961.Han Dynasty II p.38 showed that in 113BC, month 11 has the solstice.

[4]. Helmer Aslaksen, The Mathematics of the Chinese Calendar, http://www.math.nus.edu.sg/aslaksen/calendar/chinese.shtml, accessed 19 Jan 2017.
[5]. Ho Ngoc Duc, Thuat toan am lich (in Vietnamese), https://www.informatik.uni-leipzig.de/~duc/amlich/calrules.html, accessed 19 Jan 2017.

Related HOW-TO blogs

[1]. tonytran2015, time-keeping-without-using-watches, survivaltricks.wordpress.com,

[2]. tonytran2015, Predicting-the-temperature-of-a-habitat, survivaltricks.wordpress.com,

Compass Versatile

 

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Gouging Insurance Premiums and possible State levies await Solar Panels.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#solar panel, #insurance, #sunlight levies, #solar, #levies, #return on investment,

Gouging Insurance Premiums and possible State levies await Solar Panels.

In the enthusiasm to install Federal Government subsidized Solar Panels, prospective owners of these Solar Panels may have forgotten two lessons of history. They are the gouging by Insurers and State Governments.

1. Gouging by Insurers.

Indeed,  the Installed Value of the Solar Panels must be included into the Home Content Values of the insured address.

The panels are in exceptionally exposed, easily damaged or stolen positions. Therefore Home Contents Insurers may require a premium worth about 3% of the Installed Value of the Solar Panels. For a $10,000AUD installed system, the premium would be about $300AUD a year.

However, Insurers may not use this easy argument but charge the maximum the market can bear. This has happened with turbo charged small engined cars. The result was that those cars had to pay higher premium than non-turbo cars with equivalent maximum power rating. For that case the market for turbo-charged small engined cars had collapsed.

So owners of Solar Panels should be prepared for the next move by Insurers.

2. State levies on Solar light received.

England has plenty of traditional houses with small windows. It was not that Englishmen did not know to build large windows but there was taxes based on the areas of windows of each house and Englishmen tried to reduce their tax liabilities.

Houses in Victoria, Australia generally do not have rain-water storage tanks (of the type used in Queensland, Australia). This is also due to State levies on rain water even when collected in private lands. Collection of these levies have now been enforced in Melbourne metropolitan area after the threat of the drought has subsided.

The precedents are there, do you think that the State Government of Victoria, Australia would ignore its easy to grab Levies on Solar Energy received ?

The State may arrogantly set the levies at 50% of local retail price of electricity. Who would be able to stop it? The State may say that it needs the money for its non-stop empire buiding!

3. Prospective Solar Panel Owners should beware of nasty surprises.

Everything is rosy when the Governments sell you. Once a marketing aim has been reached, the nasty surprises may surface.

When making calculations on the Return On Investments, prospective owners of Panels should consider Insurance Premiums and Possible State Levies on Solar Light along with their maintenance, wear and tear on the system.

Reference

[1]. 

 

 

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The agonizing choice of Vietnamese food dishes.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#food dies, #industrial dies, #unapproved ingredients, #toxic ingredients, #Roasted Chicken with Crispy Skin, #Ga Chien Gion Da, #toxic food test, #rubbing on skin test,

 

When encountering a new food, the choice is sometimes an agony: Eating it may save your life or may also kill you or injure your digestive system. The following is an account of my real life experience. I quickly got over it by being alert and applying my learned habits for survival.

 

 

1. Nutritious or Toxic food?

Figure 1: Nutritious or Toxic food? Roasted Chicken with crispy skin served with rice from shop 1

Figure 2: Nutritious or Toxic food? Roasted Chicken with crispy skin served with rice from shop 2

This is an account of actual events happened to me.

There are two Vietnamese restaurants in Melbourne selling two similar dishes (in September 2017). The dishes are for you to choose, they are both sold at $12AUD. Since I wanted to write some introduction to tasty Vietnamese foods, I usually take photos of any interesting dish I ordered before consuming it. That is why I happened to have the photos.

The two photos are taken in September 2017. The dish is name Roasted Chicken with Crispy Skin (Vietnamese Gà Chiên Giòn Da) served with Rice.

My friends and me went to the first restaurant, one dish of Roasted Chicken (one of the photo) was ordered and consumed by one of my friends. Two days later, we went to the second restaurant few doors from the first one, I ordered a similar dish from the second restaurant (the other photo). Three hours after eating it I had stomach cramp, diarrhea, burning sensation on the inside of mouth, ulcer lasting five days on my gum. The stomach cramps subsides after I pass out all the ingestion, assisted by my consumption of a lot of milk. About one week later, after my recovery, we went to the first restaurant and I saw my friend still eating the same dish with no problem.

So I thought that I may have had allergy with roasted chicken (The hypothesis had to be considered but it was highly unlikely as I have had no problem consuming chicken meat dishes in both Australia and Vietnam.), so I cautiously ate parts of the dish there (similar to that my friend had eaten and had no problem after consumption), and few days later I ate the whole dish, still with no problem. So I found out that I did not have any allergy with roasted chicken!

So WHY did I have the the stomach cramp and the burning sensation in my mouth after eating a similar dish at the second restaurant? You should think about it before reading any further. You should examine the two photos to find any possible explanation.

2. Please think to practice your survival skills.

 

You should think about it before reading any further.


Intentional blank space

Intentional blank space

Intentional blank space

 

You should think about it before reading any further.

 

Intentional blank space

Intentional blank space

 

3. The cause of the problem.

I did not have any allergy with chicken meat, as I has been eating lot of chicken dishes in both Australia and Vietnam.

As I had been to Vietnam, I had previously experienced some symptoms of ingesting unapproved food dies and food additives: Burning sensation on the interior of the mouth, ulcer on the interior of the mouth.

The problem may had been caused by the wholesales supplier to the second restaurant switching its supplies. Therefore, the second restaurant may had used some unapproved ingredients in its preparation of its dishes.

I suspected that I had consumed unapproved food dies in their dish of “Roasted Chicken with Crispy Skin served with Rice”.

When I rechecked the photos of the two dishes taken with the same camera, I noticed the unusual colour of the chicken pieces from the second restaurant (the second photo) and the bright colour of the sauce accompanying the dish (but I had not consumed any such sauce). Checking on the current number of clients frequenting the second restaurant (serving the dish in the second photo) I found out that it has dropped down to 1/4 of what it was one year ago.

So I have all reasonable reasons to believe that the second restaurant has used unapproved food dies (industrial dies instead of food dies). The problem is at plague level in Vietnam and now it has spread to Australia since Vietnamese food ingredients are specialty foods not subjected to rigorous testing standards when imported into Australia.

4. Lessons learned.

1. A trusted restaurant may still provide you with unsafe food when its wholesaler changed its supplies.

2. When an Asian food has unusually bright colours, it may have been died with unapproved, unsafe industrial dies (see figure 2).

3. Always think that any unfamiliar (especially Asian) food may be poisonous and test it by checking for your  allergy against it by smearing it on the inside of the elbow, on your neck, on your cheek, on the outside of your lips in that order. If no allergy reaction is found, start with consuming only a small amount of that food before eating the whole meal in the following day. (The tests may not be quite friendly to your party dresses!)

4. Only eat in a restaurant where you can see the owner and the cook eating that same meal as you.

5. When I was eating in Vietnam, I befriended and always shared my food with the pet cat of the restaurant owner. She has far more sensitive taste and smell than any human. Any change in taste or smell of the food would be noticed by my trusted four legged friend !  Be kind to animals and you may be well rewarded!

 

5. Notes from previous experiences.

” Always think that any new (especially Asian) food may be poisonous and test it by checking for your  allergy against it by smearing it on the inside of the elbow, on your neck, on your cheek, on the outside of your lips in that order. If no allergy reaction is found, start with consuming only a small amount of that food before eating the whole meal in the following day. ” has saved me from a Vietnamese “bubble cup” (Trà Sữa Trân Châu) in Saigon.
After biting the first grain, I noticed a swelling of my lips. Going through this test I discovered that the grains cause the swelling !

 

Many Vietnamese dishes of Roasted Quails are heavily laced with Mono-sodium-gluatamate (which still has not been banned!). I can tell if I have ingested monosodium glutamate by the following symptoms:

a. back of neck suddenly becomes hot (ingesting small amount)

b. following by Light Headaches (ingesting medium amount)

c. following by Severe Headaches (ingest large amount), severe thirst, swollen esophagus causing breathing difficulty and swollen ankles of day long duration.

 

Some years ago, one of my Caucasian friend consumed “Sweet and Sour Pork” laced with lots of Mono-sodium-glutamate and had her esophagus swollen to the point that she was sent to hospital in an ambulance.

 

Reference.

[1].

Related HOW TO blogs:

Rice as emergency food., posted December 24, 2016

20161230_192839ricegrains2c60.jpg

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Making money from Treasury Bonds with Insider Information

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#Treasury Bonds, #Quantitative Easing, #QE,

Making money from Treasury Bonds with Insider Information.

An insider can make outrageous amount of profit with his insider knowledge, at the expense of the tax payers. This blog gives the details description for such a process of transferring public money into private pockets.

1. Assumptions.

1. The going interest rate is 3% in year 2000.

2. The Federal Reserve Banks (FED) will rescue the economy by lowering interest rate on the “signals”.

3. The insider controls banks.

4. Insider has 200M.

2. Execution of plan.

1. Insider borrows 1000M from banks on a year to year basis, renewable up to 2005.

2. Insider buys 5 years Treasury Bonds at the price of 1000M*(1-5*3%)= 850M to be matured in 2005 at value of 1000M

3. Insider pays 4% interest to banks at the end of each year.

4. Insider puts his account of 200M (earning interest) and 1000M Treasury Bonds (to mature in 2005) as securities to banks.

3. Banks have secured loans.

The worse case for the bank is to keep the Treasury Bond until 2005 to obtain 1000M from the Treasury. Interest accrued to that date would be 1000M*5years*4%per-annum = 200M that can be deducted from Insider’s account of 200M.

The Insider still has some earned interest for his decreasing account of 200M left as security for his loan of 1000M.

The loan will be approved by banks as it is fully secured and interest payment is guaranteed by the account of 200M left as security.

4. Insider looks silly.

Without the loan, Insider would collect from his bank account an interest payment of (say at 2%):

200M*5years*2%per-annum = 20M.

With the loan, Insider has a decreasing account starting at 200M ending at almost zero. So the total interest would be

200M*5years*2%per-annum*0.5 = 10M.

Besides that reduction of 10M in interest earned, he earns only 150M from Treasury Bonds but has to pay 200M in interest to the bank. So he would lose 40M after 5 years with that loan.

The insider does indeed look silly with his complicated financial plan.

5. Insider wins big amounts.

The banks with connection to the Insider now behave recklessly and are threatened with bankruptcy ! This worries the Federal Government.

The government decides to bring interest rates down to 0.1% and buy back all affected Treasury Bonds (Quantitative Easing)  (to help the reckless banks and indirectly the Insider). Suppose that this happened in the year 2001.

1000M of Treasury Bonds to mature in 2005 is now bought back by the FED at

1000M*(1-0.1%per-annum*4years) = 1000M*(1-0.004) = 996M.

Insider now resell his 1000M Treasury Bonds maturing in 2005 to the FED for 996M and pays off his bank loan.

His out-goings are

850M buying Treasury Bonds in 2000.

40M interest paid to banks.

His incomes are

996M selling Treasury Bonds in 2001

4M Interest earned by his account of 200M left as security (assuming an interest rate of 2% paid to him)

So his net income after one year is

996M + 4M – (850M + 40M) = 110M,

that is an income of 110M on a capital of 200M after one year!

6. How can he earn that much.

The insider now wins because of the Quantitative Easing policy of the Federal Reserve Banks. He has bought Treasury Bonds at market price, hold them for one year then resold them at Government supported price.

His insider knowledge is that the FED will buy back Treasury Bonds at higher than market price. If there was no such thing he would certainly look silly with his plan.

7. Who has won? Who has lost?

The Insider won, the banks made profits on the secured loans to him while the tax payers have lost

The figure of 200M dollars is only an example figure, in reality the figure is much higher, it may involve trillions of dollars. The year figure was started at 2000 for ease of argument but it can be any year.

That is why any relationship between a powerful financial institution and a government should be looked at with suspicion.

References

[1]. Mish Mishtalk, Margin debts hit record high-coinciding with extreme-consumer confidence, mishtalk.com, http://mishtalk.com/2017/03/30/margin-debt-hits-record-high-coinciding-with-extreme-consumer-confidence-analysts-say-dont-worry/, 30 March 2017.

[2]. stock-markets-sit-blithely-on-a-powerful-time-bomb, sentinel blog, http://sentinelblog.com/2017/04/22/stock-markets-sit-blithely-on-a-powerful-time-bomb/, accessed 22 April 2017.

[3]. https://lplresearch.com/2017/04/07/margin-debt-worry-or-overblown-anxiety/

[4]. Yashaswini Swamynathan, Reuters, The S&P 500 is worth $20 trillion for the first time, business insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-500-market-cap-crosses-20-trillion-for-the-first-time-2017-2, Feb 13, 2017.

[5]. The last time this happened the market crashed, sentinelblog.com, https://sentinelblog.com/2017/04/22/the-last-time-this-happened-the-market-crashed/

[6]. http://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/08/bailed-out-citigroup-is-going-full-throttle-into-derivatives-that-blew-up-aig/

[7]. https://bonnerandpartners.com/u-s-stocks-are-disastrously-overvalued/

[8]. Michael Pento, curve-inversion-and-chaos-to-begin-by-december-2017, Re-Blogged  https://us-issues.com/2017/06/10/curve-inversion-and-chaos-to-begin-by-december-2017/
By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From PentoPort

 

 

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Finding North by stars for beginners

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#find North, #finding North, #by stars, #star disk, #star map, #Mercator, #beginner,

Finding North by stars for beginners.

Beginners only need to know few stars to practice finding North by stars.

1. Common viewing instructions for all beginners.

1. From the following three maps select and print the one suitable for your zone.

Sky map Northern 3/4 sphere

Figure: Sky map (Inversion type) of the Northern Celestial 3/4-sphere showing only 20 brightest stars and some constellations. 24hr of R.A. is on the top and R.A. increases in the clockwise direction.

Sky map Southern 3/4 sphere

Figure: Sky map (Inversion type) of the Southern Celestial 3/4-sphere showing only 20 brightest stars and some constellations. 24hr of R.A. is on the top and R.A. increases in the clockwise direction. 

star map mercatorx1p6Figure: The Mercator map of the sky for inhabitants of Tropical Zone. North direction is on its top.  24hr of R.A. is near the center and R.A. increases towards the left (East) of the map. The map is to be read South side up in the Southern hemisphere.

2. Use a shadow stick or a compass to find out the (true) North direction at your location.

shadow stick to tell time and find North

Figure: A shadow stick for finding North and time is drawn here in blue colour. The shadow of its tip always move WEST TO EAST along a conical curve C (drawn in red). The axis of symmetry of the curve C is the terrestrial North-South direction.

3. Find out the latitude of your location.

4. Find out the current date in the calendar year.

5. Use the following simplified instructions to identify the stars at mid-nights.

2. Viewing instructions for inhabitants of Polar and Temperate Zones.

1. Place one of your straightened arm horizontally, pointing to North if you are in Northern hemisphere and South if in Southern hemisphere.

2. Raise your straightened arm by an angle equal to your latitude. Your straightened arm now points to the Celestial pole at your location.

3. Hold the circular star map on the hand of that arm, with its axis pointing to the Celestial pole and the MARKING FOR CURRENT MONTH ON ITS RIM AT ITS BOTTOM.

4. You can now see the images of stars on the map pointing to the actual stars.

sky disk alignment

Figure: Aligning the center of the paper star disk to the Celestial pole in the sky to identify the stars at midnight.




5. Beginners only need to recognize the circumpolar stars for their own hemisphere.

Inhabitants of Northern hemisphere need only to identify Little Dipper, Big Dipper (11hr R.A., 60° declination) and Cassiopeia (1hr R.A., 60° declination).

Figure: Finding North by stars for beginners (Northern hemisphere).

Inhabitants of Southern hemisphere need only to identify Agena, Alpha Centauri (pointer stars) and Acherna in the anticlockwise direction (all at 60° South declination).

Figure: Finding North by stars for beginners (Southern hemisphere).

6. The knowledge of other stars will follow naturally with time.

3. Viewing instructions for inhabitants of Tropical Zone.

1. Hold the Mercator star map above your head, with North direction pointing to true North.

2. The length of the map corresponds to 13 months. Select and view only 6 month centered on the CURRENT MONTH. The line for the current month is worked out from the markings along the vertical lines of this Mercator map.

3. You can now see the images of stars on the map pointing to the actual stars.

4. Beginners only need to recognize some bright stars near to the Celestial equator:  Orion Rigel. Betelgeuse, Procyon, Leo Regulus, Spica, Bootes Arcturus, Altair. They are associated with various different months of the year.

equatorial stars

Figure: Finding North by stars for beginners (Tropical zone). Click to enlarge figure.

5. The knowledge of other stars will follow naturally with time.

Bright Stars 20 Plus 2

Figure 2: Table of 20 brightest +2 stars in order of appearance.

4. Common Identifying instructions.

1. Beginners should observe the identified stars in subsequent night as well as at various different time.

2. The circumpolar stars will remain visible all year round for cold temperate zones. Beginners only need to know them well.

3. The tropical stars appear in sequences and tropical inhabitants have to associate tropical stars with their months in the year.

4. Tropical constellations are seen upright from Northern Hemisphere and upside down from Southern Hemisphere

References.

[1]. tonytran2015, Shadow-stick-navigation-and-graph-of-solar-paths, posted on August 19, 2016.

[2]. wiki, Astronomical_ceiling_of_Senemut_Tomb.

[3]. Suchow map, http://www.adlerplanetarium.org/exhibits/planetary-machines.

[4]. wiki, Chinese_star_maps

[5]. tonytran2015, Finding directions and time using the Sun and a divider, survivaltricks.wordpress.com , Finding directions and time using the Sun and a divider., posted on May 6, 2015.

[6]. tonytran2015, Finding North direction and time using the hidden Sun via the Moon, survivaltricks.wordpress.com, Finding North direction and time using the hidden Sun via the Moon . Posted on July 6, 2015.

[7]. tonytran2015, Finding North direction and time by stars, survivaltricks.wordpress.com, Finding North and time by stars. Posted on August 28, 2015

[8]. tonytran2015, Finding accurate directions using a watch, posted on May 19, 2015 .

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Time keeping without using watches

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#find North, #find time, #finding time, #time keeping, #timekeeping, #shadow stick, #star disk, #aiming rod, #equatorial mount, #sundial, #true North.

Time keeping without using watches.

Whenever an expedition camp is set up there is always a need for time keeping in the camp. Time keeping is required to get everyone back to base at the same time for meals or for camp activities. In the Eastern World, people had practiced reasonably accurate time keeping WITHOUT USING WATCHES since more than 2000 years ago. Their technique has been fairly accurate and is explained  here so that it can be appreciated and be useful to modern campers when separated from their watches.

1. The vertical shadow stick for finding time and finding North.

In the old time in Eastern World, each castle has a time keeper. It is interesting to learn the tricks of such a timekeeper. His main instrument is the vertical shadow stick the operation of which is described here

shadow stick to tell time and find North

Figure: A shadow stick for finding North and time is drawn here in blue colour. The shadow of its tip always move WEST TO EAST along a conical curve C (drawn in red). The shadow of the whole stick is a straight line joining its base to the shadow of its tip on the curve C. The axis of symmetry of the curve C is the terrestrial North-South direction.

A. The timekeeper/navigator first sets up a rigid vertical rod firmly buried in a level ground. The movement of the shadow of its tip gives time as well as directional information. That is it tells both time and the North-South direction.

B. He then draws many concentric circles on the level ground around the base of the stick. He then marks the position of the shadow of the tip on the ground, joining them to make a curve (which can be shown by geometry to be a “conical curve”). The symmetry axis of this curve is the true North-South direction at the location and the point on the curve closest to the base of the vertical stick corresponds to Local Noon (which differs significantly from Zonal Noon due to difference in Longitude and the variable speed of the Sun on the Celestial Sphere, the effect of the latter is known as the effect of the Time Equation). The shadow of the tip always moves WEST TO EAST and does so accurately near to NOON. Near to noon the shadow of the tip moves Eastwards by a distance of 1/4 of its distance to the tip every hour.

The timekeeper/navigator gives daily instructions to camp inhabitants on the time to come back to camp for meals/activities. The time for coming back is selected by his predetermined ratio of the length of the vertical stick to that of its shadow. When leaving the base camp, each inhabitant  has to make his own portable vertical stick to keep track of the approaching time for returning to base.

C. The vertical stick has a drawback that is the shadow of its tip travels at non-constant speed on a curve that changes slowly during the year.
One example of the disadvantages of the vertical shadow stick is that it cannot help dividing daylight duration into six intervals of equal duration for guard duties.

D. Equal intervals of time are determined from burning incense sticks, reciting prayers, filling containers with dripping water, boiling water pots, etc… Near to noon the shadow of the tip moves Eastwards by a distance of 1/4 of its distance to the tip every hour (During one hour the Sun moves along an arc which is nearly 15 degrees long and sin 15° is nearly 1/4.).

2. Star disk for time keeping at night.

Time keeping at night can be carried out accurately using the stars.

Any star gazer (ancient timekeepers/navigators had to be star gazers) in temperate zones can easily see that all stars on the Celestial sphere rotate around the stationary Polar star (when observed from Northern hemisphere) or a stationary black point (from Southern hemisphere). It appears as if all circumpolar stars have been stuck on a heavenly disk pivoted on the Celestial pole in the sky and the disk rotates slowly during the night.

The stars have certainly been drawn on an Egyptian Senenmut star map since before 1473BC (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomical_ceiling_of_Senemut_Tomb)

220px-Senenmut

Figure: The double wall mural of the tomb of Senenmut, (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Senenmut.jpg), the image has been released into Public Domain.

on China Suchow map about 1190BC, and on walls of tombs in the land of present China, wiki, Chinese star maps

Figure: Suchow map, from Wikipedia. Used under Common Creative License conditions.

The rotation of the disk can be used to tell time. The rotation seems to be at constant speed as equal angles of rotation seem to always correspond to the same duration of time for burning incense sticks, reciting prayers, filling containers with dripping water, boiling water pots, etc…

Figure: A circular disk with the drawing of bright Northern circumpolar stars as well as other bright stars visible in the sky.

To tell time accurately, the time keeper can draw the bright circumpolar stars (including the Little and Big Dippers) on a paper disk, hold the paper disk in the direction of the Celestial pole in the sky and rotate the paper disk to align the drawing to the actual star. The slow rotation of the paper disk indicates the passage of time. The accuracy of the method  depends on the size of the disk and the accuracy of its alignment to the real stars in the sky.

star disk alignmentFigure: Aligning the center of the paper star disk to the Celestial pole in the sky to determine its rotation during the night.

This method does not require the determination of meridional crossing of dim stars. Ancient time keepers may have used this method to keep accurate time at night using only bright stars..

3. Time divisions by meridional passing of selected stars.

A star makes a meridional passing when it pass the vertical plane in the North-South direction. That is when it is vertically on top of a wire strung in the North-South direction.

A time keeper may use the meridional passings of selected stars as markers for division of time (into many known recorded unequal parts) during night time.

Based on those markers a time keeper can divide the night into nearly equal intervals.

4. Improved Star disk for time keeping at night.

A bigger disk can be aligned more accurately, its rotation can be more accurately measured, but is harder to be held up in the sky. Making a bigger disk mounted in air for improved accuracy is therefore an expensive design.

star disk for equatorial mount on ground

Figure: A star disk on equatorial mount on the ground, to be read from its upper surface.

A better design is presented here and it is to make a big star disk on equatorial mount so that it will be parallel to the paper disk in the air but is mounted on the ground like a tilted round table top, with an aiming rod mounted at its center pointing to the Celestial pole. The star map engraved on the big disk here is a mirror reflection of the image of stars in the sky. An imaginary observer underneath the disk would see through it the image of the stars in the sky. Markings will be drawn accurately on the rim of the big disk for the positions of the engraved stars (which are drawn for a designated night of the year). There will also be regularly spaced markings for measuring the rotation of the observed stars from their engraved standard positions. A time keeper will only require access to the upper surface and the rim of this large star disk mounted on the ground.

star disk for mounting on the ground

Figure: A star disk for installing on an equatorial mount on the ground. The map here is a mirror reflection of the image in the sky. This disk is aligned for September Equinox.

With this type of large star disk and its central aiming rod, a time keeper can tell where a star is relative to its position engraved on the disk. The disk is engraved with drawing of the stars on one designated night which may be either the spring equinox night or the winter solstice night.

The spring equinox night has the advantage of accuracy of date in the year, it it the night when the Sun rises and sets exactly in the East and West principal directions. The winter solstice night has the advantage of  having the longest duration to observe stars.

On the designated date for the disk, the rotation of any star from its engraved position directly gives the time from midnight. On any other night an offset can be worked out using only a string placed along the perimeter of the circular disk. For every night subsequent to the designated night the stars move forward by nearly 1/365 of the perimeter.

5. Star disk for time keeping in the day.

The nights with partial Moon show that the Moon moves around the aiming rod at nearly the same speed as the stars. The days with partial Moon also show that the Moon and the Sun move around the aiming rod at nearly the same speed.
Therefore any time keeper with an inclined star disk will find that the Sun, the Moon and the stars all move together around the aiming rod with nearly the same speed. This would lead to his use of the inclined star disk for time keeping, with the advantage that the shadow of the aiming pole moves on the rim of the inclined disk at constant speed! So the inclined star disk also work as an equatorial mounted sundial (meaning the sundial disk is parallel to the equatorial plane.).
(This knowledge has given rise to the the description of Solar position in the Zodiac. The shifting of the Zodiac by precession shows that the association of solar position with the Zodiac has begun thousands of years ago.)

So far I had been able to find only equatorial mounted sundial with no engraving of stars. One such a sundial can be seen in Beijing. This disk has only time markings and can be read on both sides.

Figure: A sundial in the Forbidden City, or Imperial Palace, in Beijing. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ABeijing_sundial.jpg, Date26 February 2003,  Author User: Sputnikcccp~commonswiki .Figure used under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License.

During Winter months, a flat cardboard can be used to find the intersection of the shadow of the aiming stick and the rim of the large disk if it has no accessible lower surface.
Using the equatorial sundial during the days gives the advantage of fast determination of time with no required large seasonal adjustment. With the help of an equatorial mounted sundial, a time keeper can divide time into any number of equal intervals and can also work out the ratio of a vertical stick to its shadow at any time of the day.

6. Timing wires used in remote areas.

Similar to the central rod of an equatorially mounted star disk, any taut wire strung parallel to the Celestial axis can be used to time intervals of 24 hour. The shadow of such a wire under a strong Sun comes back to its previous position after every 24 hours. Clock makers in the 1800’s, when radio receivers were not widely used, have been using this trick to time the clocks under their repairs .

7. Time keeping with an unclear sky.

Burning of incense is used to complement time keeping using star disk in days of poor visibility.

Time keepers have incense sticks for short term timing or incense coils which last up to three days for long term timing.

Time keepers also have other methods for timing, they are reciting prayers, filling containers by dripping water, boiling water pots.

On ancient ships, time keepers can count repetitive actions such as the rowing cycles of oars, the food items made by a kitchen, etc…

8. Announcing time to surrounding area.

The time keeper may use drums or low pitch horns to announce the time to his surrounding area.

On receiving the signal for time, surrounding institutions such as nearby pagodas synchronize their own activities and then may sound their own gongs as secondary level time signals.

The population around the castle use these time signals to open their shops, prepare their predawn cooking etc…

The whole community relies on those signals to synchronize  their interacting activities.

9. Natural time keepers.

There are natural time keepers, they are the animals and plants in the areas.

Certain types of birds tweets ar some fix time intervals before sunrise. Each type of tweets has its own fix interval before sunrise. The tweets by different types of birds follow one another in the same sequence every day.

Chickens’ roosting have been used as reliable time signal foe imminent sunrise.

Chameleons’ croaking have sometimes been used by some people in Vietnam as reliable Noon time signal.

There are some plant flowering at some certain time during the day. The Vietnamese plants “HOA MƯỜI GIỜ” (meaning “Ten o’ clock flowering plants”) flowers at a constant time near to 10 AM.

References.

[1]. tonytran2015, Shadow-stick-navigation-and-graph-of-solar-paths, posted on August 19, 2016.

[2]. wiki, Astronomical_ceiling_of_Senemut_Tomb.

[3]. Suchow map, http://www.adlerplanetarium.org/exhibits/planetary-machines.

[4]. wiki, Chinese_star_maps

[5]. tonytran2015, Finding directions and time using the Sun and a divider, survivaltricks.wordpress.com , Finding directions and time using the Sun and a divider., posted on May 6, 2015.

[6]. tonytran2015, Finding North direction and time using the hidden Sun via the Moon, survivaltricks.wordpress.com, Finding North direction and time using the hidden Sun via the Moon . Posted on July 6, 2015.

[7]. tonytran2015, Finding North direction and time by stars, survivaltricks.wordpress.com, Finding North and time by stars. Posted on August 28, 2015

[8]. tonytran2015, Finding accurate directions using a watch, posted on May 19, 2015 .

DirectionBySun_12N .

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No Go Zones are halfway marks to Surrender of Sovereignty.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#no go zone, #sanctuary city, #refuge city, #immigration, #border controls. #surrender of sovereignty, #White genocide,

No Go Zones are halfway marks to Surrender of Sovereignty.

When the rulers of a country quietly cedes its territory to appease a potential aggressor or out of selfish own interests, they often do it with Enclaves, Ghettos which are then  turned into No Go Zones. This conceals their acts from the citizens of the country. By the time the citizens wake up it may be too late.

1. Steps leading to No Go Zones.

The rulers of country M, out of pressure from another country C (potential aggressor) or out of their selfish private interests, decided to let in a large (town sized) number of citizens of country C. They do it along the following steps.

1. The rulers of country M sign the agreement with country C to issue visas to citizens of country C under the pretext of: Promoting tourism, having guest workers, enriching the culture, offering refuge from disasters, etc..,

2. Country C then sends its most patriotic, fecund families into M as guest workers and traders. They will give birth to many children while in country M.

3. Some of these new comers will buy houses concentrated in one suburb or buy lands to build blocks of houses. The houses are either bought openly by citizens of C or by local front-men using their money.

4. The houses are purposely built to display the good features of the culture of country C to (presumably curious ?) citizens of country M. They are (misleadingly ?) called “cultural enrichment houses” promoting the niceties of country C.

5. The enclave is next populated by people from country C. Local police are WARNED NOT TO RACIALLY HARASS the inhabitants. Police will not enter the “cultural enrichment” suburb for fear of accusations of Racial Discrimination.([11]. How-california-officials-aim-to-prevent-racial-profiling-by-police )

6. Inhabitants of the “cultural enrichment town” want to carry out their own customs DESPITE the rules and the customs of the host country M. ([12]. Germany-bans-pork-cafes-schools-offending-Muslim-migrants , [13]. www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-nordics-insight/not-in-my-backyard-mainstream-scandinavia-warily-eyes-record-immigration , [14]. migrant-gets-15-months-sexually-abusing-children-young-five , [15]. www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/germany-brings-in-no-means-no-law-for-sex-offences , [16]. www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/sweden-on-the-brink-of-a-legal-crisis , [17]. absolute-nightmare-in-england-as-settled-refugees-begin-to-protest-for-the-implementation-of-sharia-law )

7. Inhabitants of the “cultural enrichment” town use money from their country of origin C in their daily trade among themselves, not the money of the host country M. They may even refuse to trade with citizens of country M using currency of M. ([18]. www.asiasentinel.com/society/laos-society/gambling-on-chinese-investment-in-laos)

8. Citizens of host country M are advised of NO GO ZONES due to fear for their safety when the inhabitants of that town become hostile to citizens of host country M. ([19]. www.rt.com/news/392009-eight-hoods-added-sweden-no-go-zone , [20]. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3390168/Migrant-rape-fears-spread-Europe-Women-told-not-night-assaults-carried-Sweden-Finland-Germany-Austria-Switzerland-amid-warnings-gangs-ordinating-attacks ).
9. The “model cultural enrichment” center now becomes a sanctuary city, refuge city for visitors from country C with expiring or no legal visa. ([21]. wiki/Sanctuary_city , [22]. chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/08/07/rahm-emanuel-lawsuit-justice-department-sanctuary-cities )

9. The “cultural enrichment town” name their streets after those in country C, forms sisterhood relationships with other cities in country C and start conducting its own Foreign Affairs.

10. Country M now cannot wind down the “cultural town” due to criticism from country C over the infringement of the rights of its citizens there. ([23]. mexico-criticizes-new-texas-sanctuary-city-law )

11. If country M has lax immigration and citizenship laws many 2nd and subsequent generations of immigrants/guest workers/traders will become Citizens of M only in name while remain Loyal oversea-born Citizens of C. ([7], http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3582896/posts ).

12. These new “Citizens of M with Foreign Loyalty” now try to have many children to outnumber the native Citizens of M in “cultural enrichment town” .

13. When the ratio of “Citizens of M with Foreign Loyalty” is significant, country M will be in no doubt influenced by C. The level of influence increases years after years ([24]. www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/09/28/key-takeaways-on-u-s-immigration-past-present-and-future )  as the new citizens originating from C have been selected to be most fecund and may legally receive birth incentives from country C.

14. When 51% of the votes are controlled by citizens with origin from C, a referendum will be called to turn the town into an autonomous region of country M.

15. Few referenda may fail but eventually autonomy will be established without using wars.

2. Avoiding problems.

1. A country should never invite a foreign group of different race, history and customs to settle in its territory unless satisfactory planning has been made regarding assimilation or coexistence.

2. Immigration from populous, poor countries into any wealthy country always carry such a risk. The host country should ensure that no group of immigrants can over-populate the native population.

3. Undue lobbying by some group of immigrants is the warning sign of coming loss of control by the host country.

4. A country with many immigrant new citizens should be well alerted for any programs directed at Loyal oversea-born Citizens from their countries of origins ([26]. tensions-rise-as-chinese-governments-influence-infiltrates-aussie-universities ).

5. Racial wars are ugly  (such as in Rwanda, [8]. wiki/Rwandan_genocide, in former Yugoslavia, [9],  wiki/Yugoslav_Wars )  and creating enclaves which are No Go Zones is a dangerous possible path leading to such wars.

3. Genocide of host populations.

1. Each country should have its own population target and reproduction plan.

2.  It is outrageous to advocate against population growth in some selected countries (Green movements in US, UK, EU) while against population controls in others (criticism of China’s One child policy, criticism of India’s population control).

3. Double standard by Population Control Movements, Green Movements and Protests against Population Controls by Chinese government is just disguised WHITE GENOCIDE.

4. Its humane to help others but National Borders must maintained and respected. With good border controls each country can experiment and execute the best policy in its territory without harms to its neighbours. It comes back to the old adage “Good fences make good neighbours”.

4. Conclusions.

1. The present miseries in Africa, Middle East, South America should be mostly blamed on Over-population. The latter should be blamed on Lack of Population Control ( due to Human Rights Movements against Forced Population Control ?) while applying Modern Technology which reduces Natural Death Rate. The analogy is to equipping a car with a modern powerful engine while retaining its antiquated braking and steering systems.

2. It is regrettable that European cultures which contributed so much to modern life are now indoctrinated to commit suicide to please the combined demands by both Borders Abolition Movement and Equal Rights Movements. Without European cultures, would there be a modern living that other cultures are now enjoying? No go zones are the quarter-way marks on the path leading to that suicide destination.

3. White people should now opt for cemetery burials with funerary objects like (crushed) Guns, I-phones, cashless Cards so that few centuries later archaeologists would know that there were some “Caucasians” living in Europe around AD2000, augmenting the remains of “Caucasoid” living in Tarim desert in 1000 BC ([25]. wiki, Tarim mummies) !

References.

[1]. Sima Qian, Records of History by the grand historian (translated by Burton Watson), Qin Dynasty, Han Dynasty I (Rev. Ed.) and Han Dynasty II (Rev. Ed.), the Res. Cent. for Transl. The Chinese Univ. of Hon Kong and Colubia Univ. Press, Hong Kong and New York, 1961.

[2]. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. First published in Chinese before 200BC. There are English translations.

[3]. tonytran2015, understanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours, https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/01/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours/

[5]. anti-west-statements-turkish-president-erdogan-and-pm-davutoglu-muslim-countries-must-unite, http://www.memri.org, https://www.memri.org/reports/anti-west-statements-turkish-president-erdogan-and-pm-davutoglu-muslim-countries-must-unite

[6]. https://vikinglifeblog.wordpress.com/2017/04/30/demographic-genocide-2/

[7].  chinese-ucsd-students-protest-unreasonable-dalai-lama-invite-paid-by-red-china

[8]. wiki/Rwandan_genocide

[9]. wiki/Yugoslav_Wars ,

[10]. www.rfa.org/english/news/laos/casinos , http://www.rfa.org/english/news/laos/casinos-10152012175335.html 

[11]. How-california-officials-aim-to-prevent-racial-profiling-by-police

[12]. Germany-bans-pork-cafes-schools-offending-Muslim-migrants

[13]. www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-nordics-insight/not-in-my-backyard-mainstream-scandinavia-warily-eyes-record-immigration

[14]. migrant-gets-15-months-sexually-abusing-children-young-five

[15]. www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/germany-brings-in-no-means-no-law-for-sex-offences

[16]. www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/sweden-on-the-brink-of-a-legal-crisis

[17]. absolute-nightmare-in-england-as-settled-refugees-begin-to-protest-for-the-implementation-of-sharia-law

[18]. www.asiasentinel.com/society/laos-society/gambling-on-chinese-investment-in-laos

[19]. www.rt.com/news/392009-eight-hoods-added-sweden-no-go-zone

[20]. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3390168/Migrant-rape-fears-spread-Europe-Women-told-not-night-assaults-carried-Sweden-Finland-Germany-Austria-Switzerland-amid-warnings-gangs-ordinating-attacks

[21]. wiki/Sanctuary_city

[22]. chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/08/07/rahm-emanuel-lawsuit-justice-department-sanctuary-cities

[23]. mexico-criticizes-new-texas-sanctuary-city-law

[24]. www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/09/28/key-takeaways-on-u-s-immigration-past-present-and-future

[25]. wiki, Tarim mummies

[26]. tensions-rise-as-chinese-governments-influence-infiltrates-aussie-universities

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Investors beware: Dividend Growth is misleading

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#company #bankruptcy, #investment, #dividend growth, #share dilution, #growth, #Net Earning, #return on investment,

Investors beware: Dividend Growth is misleading.

In analyzing return on a share investment, share-holders use the conveniently supplied figure of

Dividend/sharePrice + dividendGrowth 

to compare the return with those of government  bonds.
However, the figure is of little value as it is easily manipulated. An alternative figure should be used, it is

Dividend/sharePrice – Dilution + (projected Growth in Net Earning).

1. Dividend Growth is misleading.

Indeed,  the yearly schedules of payments of dividends are decided by company directors and may bear no relation with the real healthiness of the company.

Directors can even determine a schedule of increasing dividends that inevitably leads to more and more debts and eventually to the bankrupcy of the company (This is similar to the situations of many Pension Funds in USA in 2017 (Can most pension funds last?, [16]).

2. Growth in Net Earning is more revealing.

The alternative figure for calculating the return on investment is

Dividend/sharePrice – Dilution + (projected Growtth in Net Earning) .

The new figure is more revealing as it tells the (accurately known) dilution of shares by the issue of bonus (free or discounted) shares to directors (Bankers-given-outrageous-incomes-by-their-boards , [5]) and it requires the (responsible) projection of the growth of Net Earning after Interests and Taxes !

3. Shareholders to construct own figures.

Company directors would not want share holders to know the blatant rip-offs using bonus shares. Indeed, shares are diluted immediately after any issuance of additional shares.

Directors also don’t want to risk sticking their necks out giving irresponsibly optimistic (often miserably failed)  prediction of Growth in Net Earning after Interests and Taxes.

So companies will try to hide those two types of required figures of Dilution and projected Growth in Net Earning. Therefore investment publications would have only the figure of Div/Price plus past-Dividend-GROWTH.

However, past “performance is no guarantee for the future” in the current treacherous time. So shareholders should not expect the figures to be supplied by any company. They have to search for disclosures on bonus shares and details on operation of the company.

Finally, shareholders should be highly alerted to signs of any one of the following list of risks.

4. Sufficient single causes for a company crash.

Company Bankruptcy signs

Figure: List of single sufficient causes for a company crash. Any single cause in this list can cause a company to go bankrupt.

a/- Its banker does not want to be its easy going, friendly banker anymore. (The bank knows more than you do about the imminent cash flow of the company; see also [11]).

b/- Its clients can buy cheaper elsewhere.

c/- Its suppliers have switched to new clients (with no cash flow problem) who pay more promptly after each delivery.

d/- The company has run out of new subscribers for its new share issues (which is a substantial source of income providing for its yearly expenses).

e/- If the company cannot pay its debt installments and expenses on any due date, it is required by laws to be liquidated.

References

[1]. Ex-HBOS banker ‘sold his soul for swag’, bbc new, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38842723, 2 February 2017.

[2].  Wolf Richter, S&P 500 Earnings Stuck at 2011 Levels, Stocks up 87% Since, Straight Line Logic , https://straightlinelogic.com/2017/02/19/sp-500-earnings-stuck-at-2011-levels-stocks-up-87-since-by-wolf-richter/

[3]. Barry Ritholtz, Excessive CEO Pay for Dumb Luck, bloomberg.com, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-06/excessive-ceo-pay-for-dumb-luck, accessed 07 Mar 2017.

[4]. Colin Twiggs, CEO pay is rigged | Barry Ritholz, Gold Stocks & Forex, https://wordpress.com/read/feeds/289142/posts/1366147221, 07 Mar 2017.

[5]. tonytran2015, Bankers-given-outrageous-incomes-by-their-boards , https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2016/12/22/bankers-given-outrageous-incomes-by-their-boards/, posted on December 22, 2016.

[6]. Mish Mishtalk, Margin debts hit record high-coinciding with extreme-consumer confidence, mishtalk.com, http://mishtalk.com/2017/03/30/margin-debt-hits-record-high-coinciding-with-extreme-consumer-confidence-analysts-say-dont-worry/, 30 March 2017.

[7]. stock-markets-sit-blithely-on-a-powerful-time-bomb, sentinel blog, http://sentinelblog.com/2017/04/22/stock-markets-sit-blithely-on-a-powerful-time-bomb/, accessed 22 April 2017.

[8]. https://lplresearch.com/2017/04/07/margin-debt-worry-or-overblown-anxiety/

[9]. Yashaswini Swamynathan, Reuters, The S&P 500 is worth $20 trillion for the first time, business insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-500-market-cap-crosses-20-trillion-for-the-first-time-2017-2, Feb 13, 2017.

[10]. The last time this happened the market crashed, sentinelblog.com, https://sentinelblog.com/2017/04/22/the-last-time-this-happened-the-market-crashed/

[11].How Henry Walker Eltin imploded, https://www.crikey.com.au/2005/02/02/how-henry-walker-eltin-imploded/, 02 Feb 2005, accessed 05 May 2017.

[12]. http://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/08/bailed-out-citigroup-is-going-full-throttle-into-derivatives-that-blew-up-aig/

[13]. https://bonnerandpartners.com/u-s-stocks-are-disastrously-overvalued/

[14]. Michael Pento, curve-inversion-and-chaos-to-begin-by-december-2017, Re-Blogged  https://us-issues.com/2017/06/10/curve-inversion-and-chaos-to-begin-by-december-2017/
By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From PentoPort

[15]. Private Equity firms stuck in brick and mortar retailers, wolfstreet.com, http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/03/fairway-group-bankruptcy-pe-firms-stuck-in-brick-and-mortar-retailers-albertsons-safeway-ipo/

[16]. tonytran2015, Can most pension funds last?, , https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2016/12/10/can-most-pension-funds-last/

Added after Sept 10, 2017:

[17]. https://blog.nader.org/2017/09/13/destructive-stock-buybacks-that-you-pay-for/

 

 

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Predicting the temperature of a habitat

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#finding, #comfortable, #temperature, #habitat, #daily, #annual, #seasonal, #fluctuation,

Predicting the temperature of a habitat.

When you plan to leave your house for a short walk or for a long journey or for a camping trip, it is vital to be able to predict the temperature of the habitat involved in your trip.

1. Central role of environmental temperature.

The functioning of your body and your comfort depends on the temperature of the environment. If it is too hot you may lose a lot of water through breathing and sweating, your brain may stop working. If it is too cold you will feel like having cuts on your skin, may have frozen extremities and your brain may slow down appreciately. Extremely high or low temperature  may cause death.

The temperature ranges for your comfort are

Sleeping 30°C to 37°C on body skin.

Moderately active: 25°C to 37°C.

Active state: 15°C to 37°C.

Outside this range of comfortable temperatures, the body has to activate its temperature stabilizing processes:

1. Cooling by increasing evaporation of water in the body through increased breathing and perspirating.

2. Heating by trembling, uncontrolled shaking and minimizing heat loss by raising skin hairs (causing goose bumps) and decreasing blood flow through limbs and lower torso.

So to be comfortable you have to plan your activities, sleeps and cooking depending on expected environmental temperature.

For comfortable cold nights, the temperature inside your bed or your sleeping bag should remain around 25°C – 29°C with actually measurement !

You have to plan your activities, sleeps and cooking depending on expected environmental temperature.

When it is hot you need to carry more drinking water, food may spoil easily but less fuel is required for cooking and fewer clothes are needed.

When it is cold your activities, food consumption, cooking time and your requirements for fuel will increase. You also need a lot of clothes.

Your tent set up, camp fire, camp cooking, have to adapt to extreme temperature conditions.

Figure: A low cost 75mmL X 40mmW plastic compass with thermometer and relative hygrometer on its top cover.

Some people carry unbreakable, accurate portable thermometers to avoid mis-judgement on their planning. Those portable thermometers are central to the planning.

To be able to predict the temperature of a habitat, you have to know about three different types of temperature fluctuation.

Temperature  has 3 main types of variation. They are superimposed on each other:

1. Daily,

2. Yearly (seasonal).

3. Caused by Air flows.

2. Daily fluctuation of temperature.

The daily temperature is coldest at the end of the sunlight deficit period and warmest at the end of surplus period.

So codest and hottest times for  any 24 hour period are before sunrise  and sunset.

3. Seasonal fluctuation of temperature.

solar-declination-by-a-watch-faceFigure: Determining solar declination using a watch face. (The lines SOLAR DECLINATION Its rough estimate is required for Fine Alignment of the watch are to be ignored.)

Solar Declination makes days longer or shorter during the year.

For Northern hemisphere from Mar 21 to Sep 23. the Sun stays up in the sky for more than 12 hours, so there is a surplus of sunlight during that 6 months and the temperature becomes hottest at the end of the period. It works similarly for the other half-year. The seasonal temperature curve looks almost like the Solar Declination curve, but may lag it by up to 3 months (The temperature of the deep layer lags by 3 month, the temperature on the surface lags by few days if not affected by the deep layer, the effect on any location can be a combination of the two types of temperature).

The seasonal temperature is hottest at the end of the sunlight surplus half-year and coldest at the end of deficit half-year.

So for the Northern temperate zone, hottest and coldest nights for the seasons can be as late as on 23rd Sep and 21st Mar. The opposite happens to the Southern hemisphere.

Daily fluctuations are strongest near the equator while seasonal fluctuations are strongest near the poles.

Adding the daily and seasonal fluctuations give the surface temperature of a windless desert under a clear sky or of a flat ground surface underneath a wide glass house. There is still the fluctuation brought by winds, evaporation and rains to be considered.

4. Fluctuation caused by movements of air masses.

Besides the easy to predict annual and daily fluctuations, there is a more profound fluctuation caused by the movements of air masses. The movements are called winds.

Winds can bring hotter or colder, drier or more moist air. The consequential variation in temperarure is added on top of daily and annually fluctuations to give the total fluctuation.

You have to obtain this fluctuation from the forecasts made by local weather bureau.

1. Besides bringing air with a different temperature, unsaturated wind can also evaporate water on your clothing and your skin. This evaporation can bring your exposed wet clothing down by about 5 degrees C.

2. Cold and dry wind can make your skin cracks.

5. Effects of nearby water masses.

Nearby mass of water may affect the temperature significantly.

Unsaturated wind blowing across a lake can cool down by about 5°C.

Daily and seasonal fluctuations of water in a large lake are small. This is due to the high specific heat of water.

In summary, near a lake, the average temperature over the whole year will be slightly lower (about 5 degree C lower) and both the daily and the seasonal fluctuations will also be less.

6. Avoiding excessively cold places.

Avoid sleeping under the open sky in a desert or on a rock. The air near the ground loses its moisture content and heat and become drier, denser and colder. This layer of air near the ground may then become too cold for your comfort.

Find a place under a cover on a ground with vegetable to avoid such coldness.

The temperature inside any cave also fluctuates less than on any nearby open ground. The same holds true for the space at the corner of two tall walls.

However, before using any such natural advantage, other risks such as rock falls, snake bites, insect bites, etc . . .  must be assessed.

8. Avoiding excessively hot places.

Avoid sleeping under direct sunlight in a desert or on a rock !  This is so obvious.

Walk on paths with planted trees.

9. Plan your trip to have your prefered temperature.

Select trip time to have your prefered temperature. Also choose your route through areas with comfortable temperature. Doing that can give you a better trip than not doing any planning.
Bring your suitable clothing and gears to keep yourself warm and dry.

 

Reference.

[1].

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