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Discussions on policies affecting societies.

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Understanding the plays set-up by pretenders heroes/rescuers.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#Strongman rescueing a beauty, #Foreign Affairs, #Kurd, #Islamic State.

Understanding the plays set-up by pretenders heroes/rescuers.

When a crook wants to befriend a naive person he may stage a false robbery scene so that he would be able to suddenly (“just happened to come by fate”) appear as a rightous hero to rescue the victim (“Strongman rescueing a beauty”). With such impression, he will successfully befriend his victim. From then on he can easily carry out his scam against his victim.

Such staging is well known in most Asian cultures and been widely disseminated in Asian literatures and plays. Prudent people always keep their awareness of such possibilities in their minds.
However, the trick still can trap naive people and can even trap few nations!

1. Application to coups and counter-coups.

A foreign power may stage a coup against the leader of a country. The same foreign power then intervene with the coup to safely bring the losing leader out of the country.
Later on the foreign power may reinstall the leader and gain his total trust.

The coup against Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi of Iran [2] may be of this type.

The power struggle between Khmer Rouge and the late Crowned Prince Sihanook in 1976 [1] may also be of this type.

2. Applications to belligerent nations.

Country A and country B have been against each other. A much stronger country C befriends both. Country C secretly arms country B to gain superiority over country A. When the war between B and A occurs and country B nearly vanquishes country A, country C unexpectedly jumps in to mediate. Thereafter,  C becomes the benefactor of A, A may become a satellite vassal state of C.

Iraq, Peshmerga Kurd, Iran-US in 1975 [2] may have been a setup.

Iraq, Islamic Daesh, America in 2017 [3] may have been another setup.





Added after 2017 Dec 10th:










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​Euthanasia Legalization is a danger to everyone.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia)

​​#euthanasia, #legalization

Euthanasia Legalization is a danger to everyone.

From the following abuse,

it is only an additional small step (using legalized euthanasia) to have people captured in the street and killed against their will.

Added after 2017 December.

Legalized Euthanasia also open up a possibility of Underworld requesting their debtors to volunteer for euthenasia if they cannot pay back their debts. How can the authority stop that?
Do you think that gambling addicted rising film stars in Hong Kong had commited suicides on their own?



Herbal Noodle Soup of Stewed, Fried/Roasted Duck (Mì Vịt Tiềm)

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#Mì Vịt Tiềm, #Stewed Fried duck, #Noodle Soup, #Dioscorea hamiltonii, #Hoài sơn, #Papaya, #borax, #han the, #monosodium gluamate.

Herbal Noodle Soup of Stewed, Fried/Roasted Duck (Mì Vịt Tiềm) originated from Cantonese or Hakka recipes. It is a delicious, tasty, nutritious, slightly odoured dish and is well liked in Saigon. It is claimed to bring some medicinal benefits and is of higher price than other dishes of ordinary noodle soups.

(Mì=Noodle Soup, Vịt=Duck, Tiềm=Stewed, Slow cooked)

1. Herbal noodle soup of stewed, fried/roasted duck.

Figure: Herbal Noodle with Stewed, Fried/Roasted Duck (Mì Vịt Tiềm) in 300 ml bowl.

The dish may have been called Noodle Soup with Roasted Duck. This is a misnomer as the duck has NOT been roasted in the preparation of this dish.

Herbal Noodle Soup of Fried/Roated Duck (Mì Vịt Tiềm)  is usually served wirh 2 accompanying dishes of Fried Prown Pancake and Crunchy Pickled Slices of Papaya.

Dioscorea hamiltonii in this soup is a a white traditional and Chinese medicinal herb claimed to be good (?) for treating diabet.


1. A nitritious, healthy dish may become a harmful dish if the traditional recipies are not observed.

2. Cooks using unauthentic recipes may put monosodium glutamate in the dish. The tradirional recipes has no such modern ingredient

3. About 2hr after eating this dish, your body may have some odour of the dish! This is easily noticeable from the odour if your urine.

4. Your skin may have a light strange sensation caused by the oil and sweat glands excreting some compounds absorbed from the dish.

5. The pickled crunchy sliced papaya in the accompanying dish (the small dish with yellow slices) may have been made crunchy by immersion in a borax solution  (do not eat the dish of sliced papaya if you think that Borax has been used.). 

2. Preparation.

Figure: Herbal Noodle with Stewed, Fried/Roasted Duck (Mì Vịt Tiềm) from Melbourne, Australia.

This is not a recipe for preparing the dish, it only tells what may have been involved.

Half a duck is first marinated in some black sauce then fried. It is then stewed (slow cooked) in a herbal soup. The herbal soup has 30g of Shiitake (a type of delicious mushroom), 15g of lotus seeds, 10g of Chinese plumes and longans, 10g of Hoài Sơn (Củ mài = Dioscorea hamiltonii), a white traditional and Chinese medicinal(?) root tuber [1,2,3,4]. It may also contain Five Spices (commonly a mixture of star anise, cloves, liquorice,  Sichuan pepper, fennel seeds, and Chinese cinnamon). The soup is finally served with the half duck.

The half duck soup is served with noodle, Chinese pukchoy, shiitake and longan in the bowl.

The Crunchy Papaya is usually prepared by immersing slices of papaya in Borax water for days. I would not eat the so prepared papaya due to the use of Borax.


Cooks using non-authentic recipes may put in a lot of monosodium gluamate to fool customers. Traditional, authentic recipes have no such modern ingredient.

In the short term, monosodium glutamate may cause extreme headache, throat congestion, prolong thirst and swelling of your ankles and feet. Do not eat any non-authentic dish prepared with such ingredient.

Borax is banned as a food ingredient. Borax is mainly used as a Welding Flux (for goldsmith welding and for industrial brazing using Acetylene-Oxygen Gas Torches), in Photochemistry (as a Stopper Solution), in Pet Control (the mixture of Borax and Icing Sugar is an Ant Poison). Its Vietnamese name is Hàn The (Hàn=for welding, The=sour taste).

3. Where to find it.

It is an upmarket dish (costing 70000VND =$3.50US in 2017) in Vietnam (in Saigon).  In Australia, it cost $12AUD.

I don’t know how much it would cost in a Vietnamese restaurant outside Vietnam. It may cost you $10.00US (?).







Related HOW TO blogs:

The-agonizing-choice-of-vietnamese-food-dishes, posted September 27, 2017

Rice as emergency food., posted December 24, 2016


Mung Beans as grains for self-reliance.


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The various unpleasant consequences of a Real Estate Bubble.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia)

#Real Estate bubble, 

The various unpleasant consequences of a Real Estate Bubble.

A self-sustaining economy is mostly propped up by its various interdependent sectors. The sectors include housing industry, transportation industry, manufacturing (consumer goods, machinery) industry, food and pharmaceutical industry, mining industries, health care industry, financial industry and some other add on industries like entertainment, tourism, etc…

The economy is just like a circulation through these various interdependent industries. Just a single restriction in any one of them will certainly slow down the circulation and will cause problems in all others.

The aim of any government is to have all these industries operating at compatible paces so that none will be starved of its required resources.

A Real Estate Bubble occurs when people in the economy pledge too much of their resources (current possession and future earning) into their housing, denying resources to all other needs. This disrupts the economy hence weakens employment, making most of the pledge from those people untenable.


A person pledge to pay 90% of his future income into his housing will have no money for transportation and food, therefore he cannot keep his job and his pledge becomes untenable.

1. The underlying cause of Real Estate bubbles.

a. Buying a house involves a large amount of money that is hard to compare to daily experience of new buyers. New buyers are thus susceptible to sale pitches by speculators.

b. Speculators claiming shortage of land due to population growth, neglecting all other factors such as population control, population aging, emigration, outmoded economy, innovation, restructuring of the economy.

c. Speculators/developers giving overstretched, optimistic prediction on the utility of some sites to inflate their values. For example, speculators may claim a deserted intersection to become a future traffic hub or the center of a new city to sell its surrounding sites to uninformed buyers. On a larger scale, even Australia had been predicted (in 1990) by speculators to become the Financial Hub of rising Asian economies! It looks hilarious now but people did talk about that with straight faces before the Asian Financial Crisis of 1990.

d. There is a rush to convert other forms of wealth storage (gold, cash currency, foreign currency, company shares) into Real Estate holding. The rush may be caused by a  government’s threat of confiscation of private gold holdings, threat of demonetization, threat of national insolvency, or caused by the rising risk of share market collapse,..)

2. Good time when the bubble grows and terrible time when reality returns.

Every property owner feels good when the bubble grows. They feel clever. The ratios of their investment debts to their total assets are becoming smaller and smaller as the months come. Their happiness, wealthy feeling and the increased spending spread to people around them, strengthening the economy.

Due to higher prices of properties, the construction industry can operate at full speed, building new houses everywhere, leading to increased demands for cars and other consumer goods. Local governments with taxing authorities increase their tax revenues and embark on their grandiose schemes. Related industries subsequently grow but even then their rises still cannot create adequate numbers of newly affluent buyers for the overpriced houses. The growth of all industries still cannot catch up with the sudden rise in house prices. This INABILITY TO CATCH UP causes the resulting bursting of the price bubble.

When prices come back to reality, recent or late property investors worry about the ratios of their investment debts to their assets growing bigger with time. The debts may become unserviceable. Property investors therefore reduces their spending, effecting the economy. A recession of the economy is now a reality.

Property Developers not able to sell their products at anticipated prices, while having to pay their contractors and interests on their business loans may be forced to liquidate their unsold stocks (houses). Optimistic housing investors cannot rent out newly acquired houses may have to resell them to cut losses. These releases of houses on the market may cause some panic and amplify the price drops. People then try to cut their losses and reduce their spending. Banks worry about bad loans and may increase interest rates to cover for any possible loss. Many (mostly new) businesses (without deep pockets) will come under interest rate pressure and may go bankrupt.

3. A few foolish buyers will be on their own.

When only a few people paid too much for some Real Estate properties, they will be left to solve the problems on their own.

They may have to change their life plans or declare themselves bankrupt (depending on the custom and laws of their country).

4. A high proportion of tax payers buying overpriced/oversized properties may force the government into rescuing them. 

If too many tax paying, productive members of society have over-commited their future incomes on housing and Real Estate, usually the government will move in to slow down their purchases and make new laws to reduce speculators’ profit on reselling Real Estate with the aim of decelerating the growth of any Real Estate Bubble.

5. Any government can decelerate the growth of any Real Estate Bubble.

Any government can easily prevent the growth of any Real Estate Bubble with a number of actions.

a. The government may make transparent its town planning and acquisition compensation policies. This reduces site selection risk for its citizens and also widens their selectability of housing sites.

b. The government may increase central bank’s interest rate on housing loans to reduce availability of borrowed money feeding the Real Estate Bubble.

c. The government may impose some capital gain tax on property held only for short periods. It can also ACCELERATE ITS INFLATION to cause big, artificial capital gains on every change of ownership of a Real Estate and (unfairly or fairly) tax that artificial capital gain.

d. The government may build decentralized public housings to increase the number of affordable housings as well as improve transport system to reduce the need for “central living” close to city centers.

6. Inaction by a government may allow unfolding of unpleasant consequences.

If a government decides to profit from a Real Estate Bubble it will have to face the risk of having its general economy collapsing due to misallocation of resources.

a. The new buyers of Real Estate may go bankrupt, unable to keep their pledges to their lender banks.

b. The new owners of rental properties may require sky high rents to recover from their excessive purchase price. Tenants may decide to change their life style (accepting longer drives to work, not working in the city,…). This may cause too much vacancy on rental markets, causing bankruptcy of rental property owners and house construction companies.

c. Bankruptcy of rental property owners may cause forced sales of their rental properties, lowering their prices suddenly, causing lenders to review loans to rental property owners, and forcing additional owners to sell their properties in an already depressed market, this may cause even further fall in Real Estate prices. The bursting of the bubble may be more severe.

d. Price of those Real Estate properties can then drop more than 30% from their peaks (as had happened in 1990 in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia)

e. The bankruptcy of those rental properties investors may lead to the bankruptcy of their lenders.

The bankruptcy of Tricontinental in Geelong led to the insolvency of State Bank of Victoria and after that, Victoria State Premier Jeff Kenneth had to impose some once only property levy and one year petrol levy to stop the contagion of the crisis to the whole economy [1].

The development of a luxury brand new suburb with yatch docks in Melbourne nearly destroyed the lending bank Westpac (Australia) [2].

f. Insolvency of one single bank may make bank depositors withdrawing their money from all banks. This leads to the reversion to an all cash economy, upsetting many industries.

g. High inflation may then reduce trust on cash, forcing a gold or commodity based economy.

h. An economic recession may occur.

For the above possible consequences, the government may acts, bringing totally different consequences, which may or may not be any better.

7. Government fulfilling the overstretched projection by developers!

The government may also avoid the sudden collapse of RE properties by fulfilling the overstretched prediction of speculators!

a. It may create unnecessary shortage of land by IMPORTING VERY HIGH NUMBER OF IMMIGRANTS, irrespective of their prospects of integration and prospective contributions to the well being of existing citizens. (The flood of immigrants is pushing up Real Estate prices in London (Londonmabad?), Sydney, Melbourne of Australia, Vancouver of Canada as it has done in the past to Gold Coast of Australia (in 1970).

b. It may follow wild development ideas by speculators to create new towns where they are not really needed (The Vietnamese government’s plan (2015) to build an International Airport in Long Thanh, to push up land price in that area).

c. It may allow foreigners to buy RE Properties to prop up their prices.

d. It may print more money to SUPPORT the Real Estate Market.

e. The government may print more money to SUPPORT the BANKS. The government may lend banks so much money that they remain solvent but cannot pay the interest on those huge loans. So central bank interests remain low for subsequent decades (Japan has low interest rates for decades after the Asian Financial Crisis[3]).

f. It may indirectly give money to the banks by buying back unmatured bonds held by banks at face value! This is called QUANTITATIVE EASING.

8. Conclusion

An economy and its government may enjoy receiving stamp duties, capital gain taxes while the bubble grows but when Real Estate prices start coming to its sustainable level there will be unpleasant consequences. The latter far outweigh the benefits received when the bubble grew.







, posted on 17 April 2017 ,

, posted on 07 May 2017 ,

, posted on 10 Jun 2017 ,


The Parasites of Western Economy, Part 5: Company Asset Strippers and Conspirators posted on 13 August 2017 ,

  , Cashless bartering for survival, Federal Reserve Bank charges undeserved fees to Americans., A satirical guide to signs of an impending crash for small investorsYour fiat money (Part 2)Your fiat moneyBankers given outrageous incomes by their boardsSigns pointing to an impending crash for small investors,Bankers earn more than interest margin on secured loansCan most pension funds last? … all

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Beware of Fake sites.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).
#Trojan horse, #fake site, #WARNING, #DANGER, #cyber-fraud, #redirect

BEWARE of Fake sites.

When entering the word “” into the search box to carry out a Google Search, the results may give you a few fake sites. Any of those listings may trick you into entering it as a genuine site, but it redirects you instead to a fake site, from there you reveal your password and your account is compromised!

1. Always check the full heading in the address box of your browser.

Figure: Demonstration with an ACTUAL Google search for “” giving a result with the correct title line but redirecting to a totally different site (Screen captured on 2017 Oct 22-02h17GMT).

After clicking onto the search result, check that you have the address of the site you want.

In the example screen-captured here today, clicking on the result “” ( with on another line as in the photo) sends you to a login screen similar to login, but the address box has a long line appending after “ “.

You have to be aware that appendage is usually not visible in the small address box of smartphones, tablets. In that case you may have your account and password captured by the strange site.

I carried out a Google Search and found that is only a fashion outlet, not a representative of So things do not add up with that search result.

2. Only log in to the site with the correct address and with nothing else.

Sometimes a fake site can manage to stick a redirecting to the correct name to send your log in to a totally different site.

Sometimes a fake site also hides the front part of its long address from view leaving only the rear part visible, looking similar to a genuine address.

3. Immediately log out and change your password if the site looks differently.

Rather have false alarms than to have your sites or computers compromised.



Added after 2017 November 3rd: 


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Avoid Buying Zombie Floats on the Stock Exchanges.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#restructured company, #float, #zombie float, #zombie company, #IPO

Avoid Buying Zombie Floats on the Stock Exchanges.

As the Central Banks of major countries send interest rates to zero or even negative values, people have to take their retirement savings out of Government Bonds and they are tempted into sending their money into the Stock Markets of those countries. The people are not verse in calculating return and risks so they may grab any “established names” on the Stock Exchange and pay outrageous price for them.

There are schemers who lives off that ignorance and float the old loss making companies (zombies companies) into the markets and do creative accounting tricks to hide the losses (for few years only). Those buying the zombies at Initial Public Offer (IPO) usually lose most or significant parts of their money right after the contracts have been signed!

This blog reveals the tricks of selling zombies on the Stock Exchanges.


1. Tricks of the trade.

1. A schemer buys a long suffering loss making for next to nothing. Usually he buys it when it goes into liquidation by insolvency.

2. The schemer sacks most low level employees. They would lose their job anyway by the liquidation. The company then ceases trading for few months.

3. The company books are then scanned for any realizable, significant assets for the schemer to take.

4. The schemer draws up a contract between the newly acquired company with one of his other company (debt collecting disguised as management company) for a irrevocable, very expensive management of the newly acquired company.

5. The schemer provides a thin working capital to the newly acquired company from an expensive loan from his other company (debt collecting disguised as management company). The loan is characterized by complex conditions such that prospective investors would not understand.

6. New low level employees are hired and the company re-open its doors for trading (in a way which is precarious but is hard to be noticed by prospective investors).

7. The company is then called “restructured” and floated on the Stock Exchange for naive, unwary investors to buy in.

8. The money from new investors helps paying back the loans from the schemer and will make installments to the management fees (which are actually installments to pay off an additional debt to the schemer).

2. Analysis of the trick.

1. As management fees to another company at expensive rate are not classified as a debt, the restructured company is now debt free except for an expensive loan used as working capital.

2. The irrevocable management contract just keeps sending money to the other company (debt collecting disguised as management company) whether the management is effective or not. The contract is effectively an obligatory debt repayment scheme but is OFF the BALANCE SHEET.

3. Most capital raised from the float of the zombie will be used to repay the loan for working capital and then sent to the “debt collecting disguised as management company” over the time.

4. The director of the zombie company is untouchable by any company law or security law as the management fault lies with the management company (outside his control) but he cannot revoke the management contract.

3. Illustration by an every day example.

If someone got a wrecked car from a yard, refit it with an engine (on an expensive hire purchase plan from him) and sell it to you. Would you buy that car?

But why do you let your Pension Funds, Superannuation Funds buy the zombie companies on your behalf?

4. Zombie floats from Australian Stock Exchange.

The better known cases of zombie floats from the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) are:

The Dick Smith Electronic Company (2015),

The Myers Company (2009).

The floating of the zombies does make the Stock Exchange look like an arena for rigged games where novice investors are ripped off by schemers.

5. Avoiding Zombie Floats.

Investors have to check the trading records for the preceding three years of the floated company even if it is traded on the Stock Exchange.

A new float of an old company may be very risky as only the company name is established while the management and operation are totally untested. Investors are buying into only a dream, the dream may turn out to be a nightmare.

Any management contract of the floated company to any external company must be examined in details (How much fee per year, for how many year, whether it is revocable, what are the required termination conditions). The conditions are usually hard to obtained from any such prospectus. For this reason alone, any such float should be avoided.

Investors have to find out if the floater of the new float has a reputation in floating successful companies after claimed “restructuring”. Some floaters are known for only floating non-viable companies.

On the only basis of transparency, I would avoid any float of “restructured companies”.


[1]. dick smith blames-private-equity-owners-greed-for-collapse,

[2]. dick-smith-class-action-ready-to-launch,



[5]. the-private-equity-giants-the-greek-target-and-a-trojan-horse, October 28, 2015

[6]. report-says-big-buyouts-are-likelier-to-default, date 05Nov2009



The Parasites of Western Economy, Part 5: Company Asset Strippers and Conspirators posted on 13 August 2017 ,


  Cashless bartering for survivalFederal Reserve Bank charges undeserved fees to Americans.A satirical guide to signs of an impending crash for small investorsYour fiat money (Part 2)Your fiat moneyBankers given outrageous incomes by their boardsSigns pointing to an impending crash for small investors,Bankers earn more than interest margin on secured loansCan most pension funds last? … all



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Calibrating food storage thermometers.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia)

#thermometer, #household thermometer, #fridge thermometer, #food storage thermometer, #calibration, #food safety, #food poisoning,

Calibrating food storage thermometers.

Figure: A household thermometer with scale from -30°C to 50°C.

Keeping food safe for eating requires storing them at correct temperatures. This requires the use of thermometers as the difference between safe and unsafe temperatures is not easily perceptible otherwise. Household thermometers are usually of the range of -30°C to 50°C and they are made for managing the safe storage of food as well as managing the interior temperatures of houses. Any household thermometers in use must be accurate as faulty ones may cause food to be mistakenly stored in the dangerous bacterial growth zone (4°C to 60°C) resulting in food poisoning.

Thermometers can be bought at very low price (about $3 for a plastic thermometer of 40 cm, 16 inch in length, as in the photo) from general stores but they ARE NOT guaranteed to be accurate and users have to calibrate thermometers themselves before use.  The calibration is not simple to ordinary people as the ranges of these thermometers encompass only the temperature of melting ice (0 degree C or 32 degree F) but NOT the temperature of boiling water (at 100 degree C or 212 degree F).

This blog shows you how to calibrate household thermometers using no specialist instrument.

1. Required tools.

Calibrating a household thermometer requires:

a. Ice cubes to provide meting ice.

b. A large bowl to contain melting ice cubes and water.

c. One water kettle to provide boiling water.

d. Two identical cups or glasses

e. One bigger cup or glass with double the volume for mixing water from the above two identical cups.

2. Creating melting ice temperature.
Place some ice cubes in water drinking water in a glass or cup and let it melt. Stir the water thoroughly. The water is then at melting ice temperature. Dip the household thermometer into the water to verify its melting ice temperature.

The thermometer can now be used to check that some water is at the temperature of melting ice.

3. Creating boiling water temperature.
Boiling water is obtainable from the water kettle.

4. Creating half way (50°C = 122°F) temperature.
Pour one full cup of 0°C water contained in one of the identical cups into the bigger mixing cup.

Pour one full cup of 100°C boiling water contained in the other of the identical cups into the bigger mixing cup.

Stir the water thoroughly. The water is then at the temperature of 50°C. Dip the household thermometer into the water to verify its 50°C = 122°F temperature.

5. Usable thermometers 

A usable thermometer should give correct readings for both temperatures of melting ice and of 50°C = 122°F.

Any error at either or both these established temperatures will lead to errors at other readings of the scale. The errors may cause dangerous consequences when applied to food storage.

The following is a dangerous food storage thermometer I have kept to prove that dangerous instruments do exist.

6. An example of dangerous fridge thermometers.

Figure: A re-calibrated, previously  faulty (dangerous) fridge thermometer.

The fridge thermometer in the photograph here was actually outrageously faulty making it a dangerous food storage thermometer. Its original markings are still visible under my re-calibration marks (Red marks are for positive including zero and blue marks are for strictly negative temperatures.).
Readers can see that the original markings are quite faulty:

Original indicated  -28°C   is actually  -10°C

Original indicated   10°C    is actually   25°C

Just imagine what may happen to any trusting thermometer owner using it to prepare for the storage of his food at indicated 0°C, which is actually 10°C. The latter temperature is actually in the DANGEROUS bacterial growth zone (4°C to 60°C).

My re-calibration has been double checked using a laboratory thermometer. The original markings were unbelievably faulty.





Related HOW TO blogs:

Rice as emergency food., posted December 24, 2016


Mung Beans as grains for self-reliance.


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Solar Electricity Installations look like a gravy train.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia)
#solar electricity, #solar panel, #home installation, #return on investment, #gravy train, #subsidize, #economically inefficient,

Solar Electricity Installations look like a gravy train.

With electricity price running out of control, anticipated to hit 40c/kWh in the near future, I have to consider investing in a home system of Solar Panels to reduces my expenditure. The good news is there are some Solar Panels on sale at $150 per square meter and my friend can install them for me at a cost of $150 per square meter. So I drew up the following financial analysis for the prospective installation of 1m2 of panel. The results are quite surprising: Solar electricity is not matured enough to be economically competitive. The Green actions by Australian Governments are mostly a gravy train with well connected, greedy people already having First Class seats on it.


1. Assumptions leading to prospective installation

All currency are in Australian dollars

1. Electricity is to cost $0.40/kWh (This is on the high side, the current wholesale price for gas generated electricity is still below $0.15/kWh),

2. Solar Panels can be bought at $150/m2,

3. Total installation cost is only $150/m2,

4. There is no heavy disposal costs for discarded Solar Electricity components which contains lead and other pollutants.

2. The physical figures for Solar Panels.

a/- Solar energy flux is about 1000W/m2 before sunlight reaches the atmosphere.

b/- Average over 12 hours of the flux of daylight on equinoctial day reaching a panel pointing directly at the Sun at its midday is


c/- However, not every house can mount a panel pointing at the Sun at midday on the equinoctial days. The panel is either mounted pointing too high or too low and oriented too much away from the noon position along the North-South direction.

Average of flux through roof slope panel is therefore reduced by a factor of 0.5. The solar energy flux through panel is therefore



d/- Not everyday is a sunny day. So the average flux on the Panel needs to be reduced for this weather effect.
Average over cloudy and sunny days is



e/- Average Solar radiation energy that can be collected daily is
(1000W/m2) *(2/3.14)*0.5*0.3*12

f/-Average daily energy that can be converted to electricity  is (assuming 17% of radiation energy can be converted into electricity)

(1000W/m2)*(2/3.14)*0.5*0.3*12*0.17 = 194Wh

g/- Electric Energy produced per year= 194*365 = 70,800Wh = 70.8kWh

h/- Retail Market Value of that daytime electricity generated in a year:

70.8kWh*$0.40/kWh = $28.3

3. Financial return for Solar Panels.

Maintenance and Depreciation cost (assuming 10% of installed value. The Panel is assumed to have a useful life of 20 years and the increases in roof maintenance cost has been included in this estimate)

10%*$300 = $30.

Insurance cost (between 1% and 3% of replacement value) as the Panel may get vandalized, stolen or damaged by rare 5cm hail storms in Melbourne.

(1% to 3%)*$300 = $3 to $9
Possible State levy on electricity from the system (A high possibility, as State Institutions still love building their empires.)

(0 to 50%)×$28.3 = 0 0to $14.1

Cost of the installed panel is at a rock bottom value of $300.

Yearly return on my Investment on Solar Panel on my own roof is:

Electricity – (Maintenance and Depreciation) – Insurance – possible State levy
$28.3 – $30 – $3 -($6) – ($14.1) = -$4.7 -($20.1)

That is there is a minimum annual loss of $4.70 with a possible additional loss of $20.1 when if the Insurer and the State Government decided to gouge my Solar Istallation

Return on Investment = -4.7/300 – (20.1/300) = -1.6% -(6.7%)

So the return is -1.6% but it can worsen to a heavy loss of  -8.3% even when there is no borrowing.

4. Terrible loss on Solar Panels with borrowed money.

In the above financial analysis, the ROI (Return On Investment) has been based on own money.

If financing has been obtained from a bank, the ROI would have to be subtracted by interest paid on borrowed money (currently between 5% and 10%) and would be terrible. However the ROI may become positive if you can obtain Loan with NEGATIVE INTEREST (It is harder to find such loans than to extract kinetic energy from renewable earthquakes!).

5. Governments cannot do any better.

I believe that US$120/m2 is the best value for Solar Panel in 2017. If any reader can find a cheaper price please write a comment so that I can update the ROI calculation.

The installation fee of AUD$150 is believed to be the best as my friend only gave such a low price to help with my prospective experimental installation.

Economy of scale does not work with non-transparent governments. Economy of scale do reduce the cost on packaging, transportation and marketing but CORRUPTION INCREASES EXPONENTIALLY WITH SCALE there.

So if individual cannot make profit, no government can unless:

a/- It can obtain Solar Panels for free (such as asking for war reparations from a rich vanquished nation like Iraq).

b/- It can have cheap Prisoners Labor for installation.

c/- It can collude with either domestic Power Generator Companies to jack up Electricity price or with Foreign Governments or Organizations (such as Green Movements) to create artificial increases in Electricity price. (The figure of 40c/kWh is already a high price, the price excluding connection fee for domestic consumption is about 20c/kWh.).

6. Follow the money on Green Projects spent by Governments .

Australian Governments since 2004 have spent national wealth (left by the John Howard Government) on MAD, UNJUSTIFIABLE WASTEFUL plans:

Subsidized (100% subsidization at $2000, under Kevin Rudd’s government) costly conversion of car to dual fuel (petrol plus LPG), installing $2000 system on old, $500 cars which become not economically viable after only few years of usage (the old car was sold for only the value of the dual fuel system).

Subsidized (100% subsidization at $2000, under Kevin Rudd’s government) costly but sloppy glass wool insulation of old houses leading to many house fires caused by in glass wool impeding the ventilation flows of flush mounted, sunken lighting.

Government policy (under PM Kevin Rudd) to encourage costly, but ECONOMICALLY INEFFICIENT, installations of (mostly Chinese) Solar Panels.

“If you buy a solar system today (October 2017), it is subsidised by a federal government scheme worth about $600 per kW installed. That’s around $3,000 off a typical 5kW system, which is usually applied at the point of sale (i.e. any advertised prices you see almost certainly have the rebate already applied).”[4], [5].

The excess energy generated by the installation can be sold to the Grid at (crazily priced) 23c/kWh, More than Generator’s Electricity price of around 9c/kWh  (Locked in contracts of 2 years duration were signed under Kevin Rudd’s government). The price paid to uneconomically produced excess energy to those households must come from the pockets of normal electricity users.

(It has now been known that Former PM Kevin Rudd liked to speak Chinese and has some family connections with some people with Chinese descent)

Having built no Fluorescent Lamp Disposal Facilities even after making the whole nation using almost only Fluorescent light sources. Mercury from discarded fluorescent lamp have not been mentioned by any Environmental Protection Agencies or Green Movements. Mercury is now an unmentioned threat lurking in Australian Wastes.

Local governments (Councils, Shires, Counties, …) now don’t concentrate on Waste Collection, Local Road Repairs, Schools, Local Libraries as required but get into the Conservation movements: Maribyrnong Council send out their “chosen” Green advocates to every home (in Maribyrnong Council) to replace 2 globes for the house holders with 2 new energy saving globe. The globes do save energy but the house hold will eventually pay for the replacement of those 2 globes at about $100 (in increases of Council annual rates on each household) while the two globes are worth only $15 and the householders can easily do the jobs themselves.

6. Conclusions.

Solar electricity is currently not matured enough to be economically competitive. The Green actions by Australian Governments are mostly a gravy train with well connected, greedy people already having First Class seats on it. Just follow the money to find out the reasons for their actions.




[3].  ,

[4].  , Peacock Media Group Pty Ltd,, accessed 2017 November 20.




Added after 2017 October 20th:[8].






, posted on 17 April 2017 ,

, posted on 07 May 2017 ,

, posted on 10 Jun 2017 ,


The Parasites of Western Economy, Part 5: Company Asset Strippers and Conspirators posted on 13 August 2017 ,


 ,    , Cashless bartering for survival, Federal Reserve Bank charges undeserved fees to Americans., A satirical guide to signs of an impending crash for small investorsYour fiat money (Part 2)Your fiat moneyBankers given outrageous incomes by their boardsSigns pointing to an impending crash for small investors,Bankers earn more than interest margin on secured loansCan most pension funds last? … all

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Harvest Moon Festival in East Asian Calendar

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

#harvest Moon, #festival, #East Asia, #Luni-Solar, #calendar, #leap year, #leap month, #equinox, #solstice, #month naming,

Harvest Moon Festival in East Asian Calendar.

The calendar in East Asian countries (China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam) is a Luni-Solar calendar. The months of this calendar begins with each New Moon. A month is named based on the position of the Sun in the Celestial sphere during that month.

1. Naming of months in a Luni-Solar year.

In summary, the months are named according to the following rules:

11th month must encompass the Winter solstice day 21st of December,

12th month always follows 11 month,

1st month of next New Year always follows 12th month.

2nd month must encompass the Spring Equinox day of 21st of Mar,

3rd month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 30°

4th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 60°

5th month must encompass the Summer solstice day 21st of December,

6th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 120°

7th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 150°

8th month must encompass the Autumn Equinox day of 21st of September,

9th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 210°

10th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 240°

When a year has 13 months it will be called a leap year, the extra month will be called a leap month and that leap month will NOT satisfy any of the above conditions for naming. It will then bear the same name as the preceding month defined by the above rules. Due to the naming convention, there will be no leap month between month 11 and the 1st month of the following New Year.


2. Harvest Moon Festival.

The full Moon day of the 8th month is the day of  Harvest Moon Festival.

Therefore, East Asian Havest Moon Festival is always the Full Moon nearest to August 21st Equinox day.

3. Seasons in East Asian luni-solar calendar.

Seasons return after the stars in the sky have come back to their previous positions, that is after 365.25 days. Simple calculations [2] shows that each lunar month is 29.530 days. Two lunar months has a length of 59.06 days.

The luni-solar calendar used in China since ancient time has had Winter solstice falling on the 11th month of the year since more than 2000 years ago, since 113BC (Han Dynasty II p.38 [3]) .

4. Midnight stars can identify luni-solar months.

Country people often use stars to identify their luni-solar months. The following examples show how a bright star can be used to identify a month:

4th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 60°, its midnight stars should be of 240 degree R.A., and Delta Scorpii (240.22° R.A., –22.60° decl.) is almost its midnight star.

6th month must encompass the day when the Sun has Right Ascention of 120°, its midnight stars should be of 300 degree R.A., and Altair of Aql (297.7° R.A., 8.85° decl.) is almost its midnight star.

1st month of next New Year always follows 12th month, Regulus of Leo (152.05° R.A., 12° decl.) is almost the midnight star for one night of that month.



[1]. tonytran2015, simple-determination-of-east-asia-lunisolar-new-year,,


[2]. tonytran2015, Finding North direction and time accurately from the horn line of the Moon,,

[3]. Sima Qian, Records of History by the grand historian (translated by Burton Watson), Qin Dynasty, Han Dynasty I (Rev. Ed.) and Han Dynasty II (Rev. Ed.), the Res. Cent. for Transl. The Chinese Univ. of Hon Kong and Colubia Univ. Press, Hong Kong and New York, 1961.Han Dynasty II p.38 showed that in 113BC, month 11 has the solstice.

[4]. Helmer Aslaksen, The Mathematics of the Chinese Calendar,, accessed 19 Jan 2017.
[5]. Ho Ngoc Duc, Thuat toan am lich (in Vietnamese),, accessed 19 Jan 2017.

Related HOW-TO blogs

[1]. tonytran2015, time-keeping-without-using-watches,,

[2]. tonytran2015, Predicting-the-temperature-of-a-habitat,,

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