That’s according to the
Central Bank of Russia, which published a Monetary Policy Guidelines
draft report on Wednesday. According to the institution, the world
economy could enter a crisis scenario due to both the increase of global
debt held by countries and the increasing number of companies with weak
According to the draft, the bank has
developed four separate scenarios for the near future, up to 2024.
According to its so-called ‘baseline’ scenario, a recession is avoided
as countries achieve their vaccine targets and advanced economies shift
toward monetary policy normalization.
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However, the other three possible scenarios paint a decidedly
grimmer picture. In the first instance, the pandemic worsens
significantly causing an economic crash worldwide. In the second, the
pandemic improves, but problems accumulated over the pandemic
deteriorate the economic situation considerably causing a rise in
inflation. In the third, monetary policy normalization by advanced
economies is accompanied by unsteady dynamics in financial markets,
causing a lack of confidence in investors. This is the worst of the
three negative scenarios, the bank says.
Russia’s economy is
suffering from stubbornly high inflation, which currently sits at 6.5%,
and has been blamed for eating significantly into living standards in
the country ahead of upcoming parliamentary elections.
Central Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina revealed that the
institution would be hiking its rate to match its key interest rate to
the 6.5% annual inflation rate in a bid to encourage saving and
discourage borrowing. The bank wishes to get this figure down to the
publicly announced target of 4%.
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