Trade war tactics, Part 5: Forming alliance to cripple opponent’s economy.

 

Trade war tactics, Part 5: Forming alliance to cripple opponent’s economy.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No. 156).

A trade war combatant may try to line up other countries to form an alliance to cripple a target country. With cooperation from suitably selected allies a combatant can easily win the economic war.

#trade war, #alliance, #Chinese yuan,

Trade war tactics, Part 5: Forming alliance to cripple opponent’s economy.

1. Forming alliance from suitably selected allies.

Some country may have been drunk on its economic growth, then aimed to become a master of the World. It consequently behaves in an aggressive and provocative way towards its neighbors and competitors like demanding laws and order but with only laws drafted by only itself. The suffering neighbors and competitors may decide to form an alliance to fight against a target country which is the aggressor. They may decide to employ an economic war rather than a military war.

In a trade war, the belligerents close their borders to cut off dependency on opponents and maintain its existing superiority over opponents. All sides in a trade war suffers but the self-sufficient countries with individual self-developed economies only suffer some inconvenient, slight increase in prices and costs of living while the traders may suffers near mortal wounds.

Trade war is just one facet of the inseparable multi-pronged (including military) attack to weaken the target country. The aim of a trade war is to weaken the economy of a target country. The strategy is to attack that economy at its weakest points.

2. Typical weak points of a target country.

For example, if the targeted country has been propelled up by being given free access to technology (fine details of technology need to be and had been painstakingly developed in some countries, they never appear out of the blue sky) from the aggrieved countries, they may decide to cut their supply of technology to the targeted country.

If the economic base of the targeted country is trading, transporting, licensed manufacturing then it is easy for the alliance to bypass the targeted country making it nearly mortally wounded.

3. Current alliances set up for the 2018 trade war.

In the current situation, Chinese economy is based on trading, transporting, licensed manufacturing, while USA, EU and UK had been given China free access to technology, licensed manufacturing and trading. USA, EU and UK now feel that they are aggrieved by the lawlessness of China’s action on many fronts:

– Refusing to recognize the Permanent Court of Arbitration‘s ruling on the case of Philippines versus China [1].

– Making unfair trade practice against Western companies operating in China by imposing red tapes as a form of invisible tariffs.

– Making unjustified requirements for transfer of knowledge from Western companies operating in China.

– Disregarding the claims on patents and copyrights from USA, EU and UK.

So USA, EU, UK are banding together and may invite smaller neighbors of China to join them in an economic war against China.

USA has already imposed steel and aluminum tariff from China while USA and EU will have no tariff against each other [2].

On the other hand, China, North Korea, Russia, Belarus, some former Soviet Republics, Iran, some Silk Road countries may form an economic alliance centered on China.

Russia and former Soviet Republics are not sharing the same ideology as China. Silk route countries may have their own disputes with China and are not too eager to be on China’s side.

3. Early results from the current trade war.

China share markets have fallen some 20% from its peaks

“The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Shanghai Composite have both fallen more than 20 percent from January highs, putting them among the worst performing stock indexes worldwide”[4d].

Chinese currency yuan has come down [3-4d].

US share markets are still hanging tough [5],[6]. US’s GDP increased 4% under Trump’s leadership [7].

EU, UK share markets have decreased slightly.

China, Russia sold out their holding of US treasury bonds and are buying gold for their treasuries [8].

4. Conclusions

Economic war is an interesting war without bloodshed and it is hopeful that great powers will stick to it to settle their disputes. It looks like USA is winning this war and China is losing.

References:

[1]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines_v._China

[2]. https://us-issues.com/2018/07/30/trump-juncker-forge-deal-to-pull-back-from-us-eu-trade-war/

[3]. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-01/chinese-currency-stockmarket-just-had-one-worst-months-on-record/9920626

[4]. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-01/chinese-currency-stockmarket-just-had-one-worst-months-on-record/9920626

[4b]. https://www.businessinsider.in/the-chinese-yuan-slides-to-a-13-month-low/articleshow/65121414.cms

[4c]. https://apnews.com/d23c3d29b84341f79dbc6678eaaae7ca

[4d]. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-17/china-shares-in-hong-kong-fall-toward-lowest-level-in-a-year

[5]. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/07/26/stock-market-says-u-s-winning-trade-war/832596002/

[6]. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4185884-sentiment-speaks-trade-wars-really-good-stock-market

[7]. https://nypost.com/2018/07/28/gdp-report-proves-trump-is-turning-the-economy-around/

[8]. https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/17/russia-dumped-most-all-its-us-treasury-holdings-disappeared-from-list/

[9]. https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355

Added after 2018 July 31st:

[10]. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/treasury-department-data-shows-russia-is-offloading-its-us-debt-holdings-at-breakneck-speed/ar-BBLdsLq

[11]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/07/31/chinese-economy-starts-to-feel-tariff-impact/

[12]. https://economicprism.com/all-the-makings-of-a-major-economic-fiasco/#more-6159

[13]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/08/01/west-begins-to-close-door-on-chinese-investment/

[14]. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-holding-treasuries-keeps-nuclear-044546767.html

[15]. https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/has-the-pboc-taken-control-of-the-gold-market.html

[16]. https://bcnn1wp.wordpress.com/2018/07/29/russia-mysteriously-liquidates-all-of-its-u-s-treasury-holdings/

[17]. https://reclaimourrepublic.wordpress.com/2018/08/03/video-trump-pa-rally-business-owners-tariffs-are-awesome-intel-officials-support-revoking-brennan-clapper-clearances/

[18]. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-05/china-now-left-just-three-options-and-they-are-all-equally-bad

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Understanding the concept of Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours.

Understanding the concept of Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.60).

#Foreign Affairs #Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours #alliance, #China, #expansion, #aggression, #war, #US, #neighbour country, #Japan, #India, #Korea, #Burma, #Mongolia.

Understanding the Concept of Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours.

Contrary to Westerners’ impression, China is not ruled by successive descendents of an Empire founder for thousands of years. Actually, there are many successive empires in China, each killing all eligible inheritors and most officials of the previous empire to grab its power and to prevent its resurgence. The new empire then restored and continued to use most Citadels built by the previous empire.

Except for a short period of the Zhao dynasty (who ruled by being virtuous but was therefore bullied by their own followers), whatever empire occupying the Central Citadel always practice Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours.

1. The central empire state and its surrounding vassal states.

The ruling Emperor always has to award his contributing followers while keeping them under control.
The empire is carved into many vassal states (each is a miniature copy of the central state but having to pay annual tributes to the Emperor) awarded hereditarily to the contributing followers of the emperor. The vassal states sometimes wage wars among themselves, their boundaries are not fix but always change due to wars/feuds between their rulers. Sometimes the Emperor has to intervene to stop wars among his vassal states.

The ancestors (in name, but not biologically) of the founder of the Qin Empire were followers of the Zhao emperors and had been awarded the vassal state of Qin, but they successfully bullied the Zhao Emperors to gradually rob their land and their throne.

2. Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours (within the empire).

The desire is understandable. Chinese history has shown many stories of rebellion by trusted officials to steal the Emperor’s throne and wives.

On a national level, each emperor let his most trusted generals be the rulers of distant non-prosperous vassal states. The distant governors have no chance of becoming more powerful than the Emperor, but they can be recalled to subdue any rebellious official in the Emperor’s court.

3. Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours (on international level).

There are times when the central state of the empire is threatened by another stronger empire/nation (for examples the Huns Nomades, the Jin Dynasty, the Mongolian Empire of Ghanghi Khan, the Manchurian Empire.)

Figure: The (Southern) Song Dynasty allying to the distant Mongolia to defeat its immediate neighbour (Northern) Jin.

In that case, the Enperor will pretend to find new markets and send trade emissaries to third (and maybe fourth and fifth) countries behind the back of the undesirably strong neighbour. Trade talks with those countries may soon become secret talks of alliance for double thronged attacks on the undesirably strong neighbour ! The spoils of wars will be divided among “allies” according to their contributions.

It is known that 2000 years ago, China has reached distant countries like Persia, various non-united nomadic countries in Siberia. The purpose was not purely for trading. It was to keep open the possibilities for alliance against immediate neighbours of the empire.

4. Applications.

Vietnam (Annam in Chinese history) was never a Chinese land and has revolted against Chinese occupations. China used to ally itself with the Southern neighbours of Vietnam (Champa some 400 years ago, and Khmer Rouge recently) for many plans for double pronged attack on Vietnam.

India is a Southern neighbour of China. The method calls for an alliance with Sri Lanka and provoking wars between the two harmonious neighbours India and Sri Lanka.

Burma has a common boundary with China. Its national cohesion is declining. The country would be a suitable candidate for application of China’s all three policies of Forever Expanding, Strike-then-Consolate, Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours. A suitable ally for China would be some revolting Minorities in the South (see [5]).

North Korea is a neighbour of China but historically had fought against China. Its is always on guard against China surprise overrun (Tibet typed operation). China makes pressure on it by opening trade with its Capitalist opponent South Korea. China may also ally with the US to attack and occupy North Korea at some convenient time. Territorial gains would have to be kept by China as the huge occupation army would logically be Chinese. (This whole paragraph was written before 05 April 2017 and publish before the meeting between US and Chinese leaders in 06 April 2017. Events after publication date now unfold almost exactly along these predictions.)

References
[1]. tonytran2015, understanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours, https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/01/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours/

[2]. tonytran2015, understanding-the-strike-then-consolate-tactic, https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-the-strike-then-consolate-tactic/

[3]. Sima Qian, Records of History by the grand historian (translated by Burton Watson), Qin Dynasty, Han Dynasty I (Rev. Ed.) and Han Dynasty II (Rev. Ed.), the Res. Cent. for Transl. The Chinese Univ. of Hon Kong and Colubia Univ. Press, Hong Kong and New York, 1961.

[4]. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. First published in Chinese before 200BC. There are English translations.

[5]. myanmar and china are almost at war, http://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2017/01/03/myanmar-and-china-are-almost-at-war/

Added after 2018 July 31st:

[6]. https://counterinformation.wordpress.com/2018/07/31/isis-is-a-us-israeli-creation-top-ten-indications/
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