Effects of Trade War on US dollars and treasury notes.

Effects of Trade War on US dollars and treasury notes.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.30x).

#trade war, #dollar, #treasury note, #bond, #US, #China,

Trade War has begun and the combatants are trying to outsmart their respective opponents [1,2].

1. China is no more the largest holder of US treasury notes.

Japan is. [3,4,5]

2. China and Russia had quietly (using straw men) sold off most of their US treasury notes.

Now they can thrash the US economy with no harm to themselves.

3. The Shanghai Security partners now form a gold-plus-oil based trading block.

They have a robust trading system based on REAL money which are gold and oil.


4. China has found other markets for their (low grade) consumable products.

China’s other markets are The Shanghai Security block (Russia, China, former Soviet Republics, Pakistan), Asian, African countries, EU, their raw material suppliers (Australia, Brazil, Pacific Island Nations).[6]

China does not need to keep its currency low relative to US dollars to preserve its outlet in the US, especially after most of US manufacturing industries have moved to China.

5. Soon there will be an about face on China/US exchange rate.

China will force US dollars down after US had LOST all manufacturing CAPABILITIES and NEED to buy Chinese products (This strategy had been previously applied many times in Chinese-Vietnamese trade). That is why tariff and import/export control are ALWAYS NEEDED.

Forcing US dollars down also increase the perceived Chinese national wealth and let China buy more foods and more raw materials.

6. The dollars will lose their massive international reserve-currency holdings.

After they lose their privileged position they will be more volatile relative to US annual budget deficits. There will be more countries dumping US dollars as reserve-currency holdings. The cycle will feed on itself until the dollars reach their real commodity based value which is suspected to be much less than the present value.

… U.S. dollars were convertible to gold. In France, it was called “America’s exorbitant privilege” as it resulted in an “asymmetric financial system” where foreigners “see themselves supporting American living standards and subsidizing American multinationals”. As American economist Barry Eichengreen summarized: “It costs only a few cents for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing to produce a $100 bill, but other countries had to pony up $100 of actual goods in order to obtain one.” In February 1965 President Charles de Gaulle announced his intention to exchange its U.S. dollar reserves for gold at the official exchange rate. He sent the French Navy across the Atlantic to pick up the French reserve of gold and was followed by several countries. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege)

7. US banning of processing of transactions involving US sanction’s targets quickens de-internationalization of US dollars.

US fiat dollars also suffer from US banning of processing of transactions involving US’ targets.

The Belgium-based SWIFT financial messaging service said on Monday it is suspending some unspecified Iranian banks’ access to its messaging system in the interest of the stability and integrity of the global financial system. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-sanctions-swift/swift-says-suspending-some-iranian-banks-access-to-messaging-system-idUSKCN1NA1PN)

8. Less people will be willing to buy US treasury notes.

US interest rate will shoot up like those in third world countries after every undisciplined budgetary plan promoted by American (In Name Only?) lefties.


[1]. https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/real-life-lessons-on-national-economics/

[2]. https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/real-life-lessons-on-national-economics/

[3]. https://truth4freedom.wordpress.com/2019/06/25/americas-adversaries-are-buying-gold-like-a-nuke-is-going-off-tomorrow-zerohedge-news/

[4]. https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

[5]. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-who-owns-a-record-2121-trillion-of-us-debt-2018-08-21

[6]. https://chinadailymail.com/2019/07/17/southeast-asia-overtook-us-as-chinas-2nd-major-trade-partner-and-why-it-matters/

[7]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege

[8]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Eichengreen

[9]. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-sanctions-swift/swift-says-suspending-some-iranian-banks-access-to-messaging-system-idUSKCN1NA1PN

[10]. https://www.dw.com/en/germany-urges-swift-end-to-us-payments-dominance/a-45242528

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We Are Going To Lose The Coming War With China

reblogged from: The Burning Platform/ We Are Going To Lose The Coming War With China,

#war, #China,

Comment by tonytran2015:
The lesson of Hannibal versus Rome should not be forgotten. On top of that USA is now a quite divisive chaotic, America-NOT-first “nation” (https://fearlessfreedom.online/2019/03/24/does-the-u-s-constitution-even-matter-anymore-the-case-of-individual-rights-as-reflected-in-the-bds-movement/).

Communism WILL FAIL.

Communism WILL FAIL.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.20x).

#Tuân Tử, #Xunzi, #Karl Marx, #work according to ability, #get according to needs, #pretend work, #pretend to have satisfied all needs, #Russia, #Soviet Union, #China, #Venezuela

1. Tuân Tử (Xunzi)’s teaching and Karl Marx’ theory.

Tuân Tử (荀子; 313 BC – 238 BC; Xunzi = Xun Kuang (/ˈʃʊn ˈkwɑːŋ/; Chinese: 荀況; pinyin: Xún Kuàng [ɕy̌n kʰwâŋ]; c. 310 – c. 235 BC, alt. c. 314 – c. 217 BC) [1, 1b] was an Oriental philosopher during the Warring State Period of ancient China, he said more than 2200 years ago: “Human beings are instinctively cruel, selfish” (Xunzi believed that humanity’s inborn tendencies were evil, Tuân Tử: “Nhân chi sơ tính bản ác”).

Karl Marx advocated a Communist World led by proletariat,

Marx predicted the demise of capitalism through a workers’ revolution that would lead to a utopian “classless society” where, according to Marx, “people work according to their ability and get according to their needs” and “in which the free development of each is the condition for the free development of all.” [2]

2. Karl Marx’ societies in practice.

2a- The Russian communist revolution led by Stalin wanted to set up that World. Here are some of the results:

Trotsky [3] got assassinated by his former comrade.

Communist cadres deposed the small capitalists, took their privileged positions and enjoyed the positions themselves, the lower classes are still not better off [4].

Current Russian President Vladimir Putin has delivered a strong criticism of communism at Davos World economic forum:

The flip side of the anti-crisis measures in almost every country is the concentration of the excessive assets in the hands of the state.

During the time of the Soviet Union the role of the state in economy was made absolute, which eventually lead to the total non-competitiveness of the economy. That lesson cost us very dearly. I am sure nobody would want history to repeat itself.

We should also be aware that … we have been witnessing the washout of the entrepreneurship spirit. That includes the principle of the personal responsibility – of a businessman, an investor or a share-holder – for his or her own decisions. There are no grounds to suggest that by putting the responsibility over to the state, one can achieve better results.

Another thing – handling crisis must not turn into financial populism, into rejecting a responsible macro-economic policy. Unreasonable expansion of the budget deficit, accumulation of the national debt – are as destructive as an adventurous stock market game.


2b- In “Communist” China, the students espousing Karl Marx’ theory and practice are paradoxically arrested for preaching Karl Marx’s theory to poor workers ! [5, 6, 7].

There is also a criticism about the states of the poor workers:

“During the Mao Zedong years, China was a poor socialist country. Now China is a poor capitalist country. Overall, the average Chinese did not get the benefit,” he said. [7b, 7c]

3. Deficiency of Karl Marx’ theory

Karl Marx’ teaching could not address one of human long known characteristics of being cruel and selfish.

This unaddressed issue has turned Karl Marx’ dream society into one where people pretend to work, the state pretends to have satisfied all their needs. and power pampers, corrupts officials while neglecting low level workers.

4. Even attempting to look Marxist had made Venezuela bankrupt.

Venezuela is an oil rich country. It wanted to set up a “Socialist” political system. Its inflation is now rampant and its people are running around for food.

The recovery of oil prices in the early 2000s gave Venezuela oil funds not seen since the 1980s. The government then established populist social welfare policies that initially boosted the economy and increased social spending reducing economic inequality and poverty. However, such… policies later became inadequate, causing the nation’s collapse as their excesses—including a uniquely extreme fossil fuel subsidy—are widely blamed for destabilizing the … economy.

The destabilized economy led to a crisis resulting in hyperinflation, an economic depression, shortages of basic goods and drastic increases in unemployment, poverty, disease, child mortality, malnutrition and crime.

By 2017, Venezuela was declared to be in default In 2018, the country’s economic policies led to extreme hyperinflation, with estimates expecting an inflation rate of 1,370,000% by the end of the year. [8]

5. Conclusion.

Karl Marx’s theory cannot be applied to any nation on this earth.


Tuân Khanh cho rằng Bản tính con người là ác, căm ghét mê tín, coi trọng giáo dục, đề cao các tiên vương đời Hạ, Thương, Chu mà xem nhẹ Nghiêu Thuấn là mẫu mực của Khổng Tử.

[1]. https://vi.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tu%C3%A2n_T%E1%BB%AD

Xunzi believed that humanity’s inborn tendencies were evil and that ethical norms had been invented to rectify people.

[1b]. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xun_Kuang

[1c]. https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Laozi

[2]. http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Karl_Marx

[3]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leon_Trotsky

[4]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union

[4b]. https://www.rt.com/russia/official-word/putin-s-speech-davos-world-economic-forum/

[5]. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/13/asia/china-student-marxist-missing-intl/index.html

[6]. https://www.npr.org/2018/11/21/669509554/in-china-the-communist-partys-latest-unlikely-target-young-marxists

[7]. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-students-protests/chinese-students-assaulted-at-pro-marxist-society-protest-idUSKCN1N718W

[7b]. https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/12/03/china-going-backwards-xi-jinping-say-veteran-democracy-activist-wei-jingsheng/


[8]. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela

Authors, activists, and politicians alike are asking the question: what has America learned from one hundred years of communism?…The answer? Apparently, not much.

[9]. https://www.victimsofcommunism.org/witnessblog/2018/4/19/forty-four-percent-of-millennials-prefer-socialism-do-they-know-what-it-means?rq=survey

[10]. https://straightlinelogic.com/2018/12/05/miseducated-or-stupid-by-walter-e-williams/

Added after 2019 April 10:

[11]. https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2019/04/10/the-heavy-cost-of-czechoslovakian-socialism/

[12]. https://justice4poland.com/2019/09/05/confidential-meeting-at-which-directives-were-laid-down-on-how-to-play-the-bolshevik-revolution/

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Australian State of Victoria signed a confidential MoU with China (Oct 25), signing up to its trillion dollar infrastructure called Belt and Road.

#secret deal, #confidential, #China, #belt and road, #transparency index, #Victoria, #Australia,

Source: Scott Morrison criticises Victoria’s secret deal with China, https://www.9news.com.au/2018/11/06/15/26/scott-morrison-victoria-china-secret-deal

This Victorian Labor State Government is still under investigation for misuse of tax money for the election campaign of Labor Party [2].

So the transparency index [3] of Australia may come down !

Previously there was a controversial lease of Port Darwin to a Chinese company for 99 years [4].

This fits the pattern given in [5] and [6].


[1]. https://www.9news.com.au/2018/11/06/15/26/scott-morrison-victoria-china-secret-deal

[1b]. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victorias-bri-deal-with-the-chinese-government-stays-secret/news-story/ea3114a4f2aab27ab42fafc8b9adc735

[2]. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-19/ombudsman-investigation-into-red-shirts-rort-costs-1.3m/10281694

[3]. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index

[4]. http://www.alicespringsnews.com.au/2016/01/19/govt-we-were-mum-on-port-lease-to-china-until-deal-was-done/

[5]. https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-the-strike-then-consolate-tactic/

[6]. https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2018/06/17/expansion-by-predatory-loans/

Added after 2018 Nov 08:

Peta Credlin: Yesterday, it … emerged that one of ­Andrews’ key staff was a “special consultant” to a local organisation, the Shenzhen Association of Australia, that is guided by the Chinese Communist Party. This adviser has visited China a number of times with Andrews and claims to have influenced his boss’s China strategy. [7]

[7]. China’s BRI largesse leaves debtors squirming, by Brad Norington, https://wentworthreport.com/2018/11/09/chinas-bri-largesse-leaves-debtors-squirming/

Barack Obama raised the concerns at his meeting with the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull saying he would have liked to have been informed of the deal before he read about it in the New York Times.[8]

[8]. http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2015/s4355269.htm

US President Obama privately rapped Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull over the knuckles for failing to provide Washington with advance notice that a Chinese corporation was to be awarded a 99-year lease to operate Darwin’s commercial port last month.[9]

[9]. http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/11/19/darw-n19.html

Richard Armitage, a former United States Deputy Secretary of State, … “I couldn’t believe the Australian defence ministry went along with this,” Mr Armitage told The Australian Financial Review in an interview.[10]

[10]. https://www.afr.com/news/politics/us-stunned-by-port-of-darwin-sale-to-chinese-20151116-gl0omf

The original sale of the 99-year lease over the Port of Darwin did not require FIRB approval and was only considered by the Defence Department at a junior level even though, as Australia’s most northerly port, it was considered a vital strategic asset.

These laws have since changed after the sale exposed major gaps in the national security considerations around the sale of critical infrastructure assets to foreign buyers and former US President Barack Obama raised concerns about the deal.

[11]. https://www.afr.com/news/policy/foreign-affairs/chinese-buyer-of-darwin-port-struggles-to-pay-interest-and-heavily-in-debt-20170704-gx4ak0

Former ambassador John Berry left his post in September 2016, meaning it has been vacant for 19 months.

[12]. https://theconversation.com/there-is-still-no-us-ambassador-to-australia-but-it-is-neither-an-insult-nor-a-concern-95711

The ex-analyst said the action should be taken in response to New Zealand’s prime ministers’ denials of any influence attempts by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Both Australia and Zealand have been hosting intense discussions over CCP influence.

Australian media recently confirmed a secret government report that uncovered CCP influence within all levels of politics.

[13]. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/new-zealand-should-be-cut-from-five-eyes-over-china-influence-2018-5?r=US&IR=T

[14]. https://wentworthreport.com/2018/06/05/chinas-communist-party-has-so-much-power-in-new-zealand-that-western-countries-might-stop-sharing-intelligence/

[15]. https://www.voanews.com/a/south-china-sea-and-western-naval-exercises/4484354.html

[16]. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-26/victoria-and-china-belt-and-road-signing-mou/10435148

Australia PM frowns on state premier’s secret Belt and Road deal . The premier of the Australian state of Victoria, Daniel Andrews, is copping flack from the Australian Prime Minister

[17]. http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news.php?id=117017

The MOU was signed on October 8 and on request from Beijing kept a secret by the Andrews Government; but with pressure from the Coalition and a November 24 election looming, the document has been made public.

[18]. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-12/whats-in-victorias-controversial-one-belt-one-road-agreement/10486996

“When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic.”― Benjamin Franklin


“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years.”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler


[19]. https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/5451872.Alexander_Fraser_Tytler

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Expansionism by predatory loans

Expansionism by predatory loans.

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No. 143).

#expansionism, #predatory loan, #infra-structure, #small nation, #China, #loan leases, #Sri Lanka port,

Expansionism by predatory loans.

People in Western countries have seen with their own eyes the method of forcing sale of valuables of borrowers by predatory pay day lenders, short terms money lenders or underworld lenders. Basically the borrowers needing the money must use their valuables (watches, rings, antique items) as security to obtain short term loans from pay day lenders or money lenders or underworld lenders. The interest rate from these lenders are outrageously high (10% a week, or even 10% a day) such that the loan grows exponentially to the point that the borrowers cannot repay and have to lose their valuables.

This practice has now spread to inter-national dealings between nations. Some Western governments such as Australia has attempted to banish this practice inside their own nations between their citizens but there is no obvious way to banish the practice when it is done between governments on international level as a form of expansionism.

1. Predatory loans to countries having corrupt governments.

The lending nations lend money to the borrowing nations which are run by their own corrupt governments. When the borrower nations cannot repay, they have to cede their lands and seas to the lender nations.

The media as well as both the Australian Australia Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and the US secretary of States have revealed this practice at government levels [1-10].

It is terrible in that the borrowing nations borrow the money to build their infrastructure but most of the money are stolen by their corrupt officials through “kick backs” while only infra-structures of white elephant type are built. Finally the borrowing nations cannot repay the interests and has to cede their lands, seas to the lender nations.

2. Countries involved.

There are many borrower countries, most of them have opaque governments:

Sri Lanka has handed its port to China [11-12].

Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea [13-14].

The list goes on with small nations in China’s OBOR plan [15-16].

3. Conclusions:

People in the whole World should demand that:

a. The UN should require its members to have transparency in inter-national lending and development plans.

b. Auditing (by non-interested parties to those loans) is required on each loan for it to be legitimate as auditing is the only obvious way to help small countries from being devoured by shark lending practice.

c. Inter-government debts should NOT be recognized when it has no transparency and no independent auditing. Otherwise the debt burden will be placed on the people of small nations who had received little benefits from the loans.


[1]. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/china-investments/543321/

[2]. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-africa/africa-should-avoid-forfeiting-sovereignty-to-china-over-loans-tillerson-idUSKCN1GK114

[3]. https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/world-bank-sounds-the-alarm-on-china-s-development-loans-and-trade-war-20180412-p4z98x.html

[4]. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/06/18/business/china-seen-flexing-loan-muscle-pushes-farther-pacific-tentacles-reach-papua-new-guinea/#.Wyc9gGN9iUk

[5]. https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/895670/china-developing-countries-loans-Sri-Lanka-Djibouti

[6]. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/questions-over-beijings-rising-loans-to-pacific-nations

[7]. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-11/beijing-complains-about-attack-on-pacific-aid-programs/9319594

[8]. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/11/julie-bishop-in-balancing-act-after-colleague-criticises-chinas-pacific-aid

[9]. http://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/labor-to-counter-china-in-pacific-richard-marles-says-20180503-h0zkxf

[10]. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/a-scary-glimpse-into-how-chinas-obor-can-ruin-small-countries/articleshow/60173526.cms

[11]. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/world/asia/sri-lanka-china-port.html

[12]. https://www.ft.com/content/e150ef0c-de37-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c

[13]. https://www.qt.com.au/news/how-china-is-exerting-its-power-in-vanuatu/3384953/

[14]. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lend-unsustainably-and-move-quickly-the-china-modus-operandi-20180410-p4z8tj.html

[15]. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pacific-nations-drowning-in-chinese-debt/news-story/082de1ecc957c9c4380bb9cb8555fa95

[16]. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-12/australia-uneasy-over-chinese-investment-and-influence-in-png/8263384

Added after 2018 June 27:

[17]. https://thedefenstar.com/2018/06/27/how-china-got-sri-lanka-to-cough-up-hambantota-port/

[18]. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/21/world/australia/china-darwin-port-landbridge.html

[19]. https://thedefenstar.com/2018/07/31/pakistan-cant-use-imf-money-to-repay-chinese-debt-us/

[20]. https://straightlinelogic.com/2018/09/01/doug-casey-on-chinas-exploitation-of-africa/

[21]. https://ogaziestheory.wordpress.com/2018/09/10/china-to-take-over-zambian-international-airport-for-debt-repayment-default-neocolonialism-daily-rant-ghana-d-r-g/

[22]. http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-31/australia-japan-us-alternative-to-china-belt-and-road-initiative/10055060?pfmredir=sm

[22b]. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/us-warns-on-chinas-debttrap-diplomacy/news-story/e0641c96d9ac95942be39fe33e9a116a

[22c]. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/how-china-censors-media-it-disagrees-with-australia-2018-6?r=US&IR=T


[23]. https://asiancorrespondent.com/2018/04/what-is-china-doing-in-vanuatu/


[24]. https://qz.com/1223768/china-debt-trap-these-eight-countries-are-in-danger-of-debt-overloads-from-chinas-belt-and-road-plans/

[25]. https://astutenews.com/2018/07/08/pakistans-financial-crisis-puts-chinas-belt-and-road-on-the-spot/


[26]. https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2018/09/14/china-to-take-over-zambian-intl-airport-for-default-on-debt-repayment-chinese-already-own-60-shares-in-the-countrys-national-media/


[27]. https://www.africanexponent.com/post/9124-zambia-is-slowly-becoming-chinese-property-due-to-accumulating-debts

[28]. https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2018/09/14/china-to-take-over-zambian-intl-airport-for-default-on-debt-repayment-chinese-already-own-60-shares-in-the-countrys-national-media/


[28b]. https://superforest.blog/2018/12/25/climate-hero-chinas-ecuadorian-earthquake-zone-dam-paid-for-by-amazonian-oil/

[28c]. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/25/climate-hero-chinas-ecuadorian-earthquake-zone-dam-paid-for-by-amazonian-oil/

[28d]. https://news.mongabay.com/2018/12/devastating-laos-dam-collapse-leads-to-deforestation-of-protected-forests/
MORE COUNTRIES with opaque deals, reports of large-scale corruption and mismanagement, doubts about project feasibility

[29]. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/13/corruption-is-wasting-chinese-money-in-africa/

[30]. https://qz.com/1223768/china-debt-trap-these-eight-countries-are-in-danger-of-debt-overloads-from-chinas-belt-and-road-plans/

[31]. https://thisisafrica.me/africans-deserve-to-know-china-loans/

[32]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/10/29/botched-chinese-railway-project-in-africa-is-a-warning-to-belt-and-road-investors/

[33]. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy-hits-philippines-with-exorbitant-loans-2018-3?r=US&IR=T


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China as drawn on Chinese Global maps

China as drawn on Chinese Global maps

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

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(Blog No.116).

#China, #Chinese, #Global map, #China and Vietnam,

China as drawn on Chinese Global maps.

The maps drawn by a country (out of its free will) tell its ambition for the future.

Figures 1, 2: Maps of China on Chinese made glass Globes.

What has happened to Vietnam on the Southern border of China? See the smaller globe on the second figure for clearer details.



[1]. ,

Added after 2018 Oct 01:

[2]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/09/29/vietnam-taiwan-malaysia-and-the-philippines-struggle-to-understand-chinas-views-on-law-sovereignty/

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Understanding the concept of Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours.

Understanding the concept of Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.60).

#Foreign Affairs #Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours #alliance, #China, #expansion, #aggression, #war, #US, #neighbour country, #Japan, #India, #Korea, #Burma, #Mongolia.

Understanding the Concept of Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours.

Contrary to Westerners’ impression, China is not ruled by successive descendents of an Empire founder for thousands of years. Actually, there are many successive empires in China, each killing all eligible inheritors and most officials of the previous empire to grab its power and to prevent its resurgence. The new empire then restored and continued to use most Citadels built by the previous empire.

Except for a short period of the Zhao dynasty (who ruled by being virtuous but was therefore bullied by their own followers), whatever empire occupying the Central Citadel always practice Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours.

1. The central empire state and its surrounding vassal states.

The ruling Emperor always has to award his contributing followers while keeping them under control.
The empire is carved into many vassal states (each is a miniature copy of the central state but having to pay annual tributes to the Emperor) awarded hereditarily to the contributing followers of the emperor. The vassal states sometimes wage wars among themselves, their boundaries are not fix but always change due to wars/feuds between their rulers. Sometimes the Emperor has to intervene to stop wars among his vassal states.

The ancestors (in name, but not biologically) of the founder of the Qin Empire were followers of the Zhao emperors and had been awarded the vassal state of Qin, but they successfully bullied the Zhao Emperors to gradually rob their land and their throne.

2. Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours (within the empire).

The desire is understandable. Chinese history has shown many stories of rebellion by trusted officials to steal the Emperor’s throne and wives.

On a national level, each emperor let his most trusted generals be the rulers of distant non-prosperous vassal states. The distant governors have no chance of becoming more powerful than the Emperor, but they can be recalled to subdue any rebellious official in the Emperor’s court.

3. Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours (on international level).

There are times when the central state of the empire is threatened by another stronger empire/nation (for examples the Huns Nomades, the Jin Dynasty, the Mongolian Empire of Ghanghi Khan, the Manchurian Empire.)

Figure: The (Southern) Song Dynasty allying to the distant Mongolia to defeat its immediate neighbour (Northern) Jin.

In that case, the Enperor will pretend to find new markets and send trade emissaries to third (and maybe fourth and fifth) countries behind the back of the undesirably strong neighbour. Trade talks with those countries may soon become secret talks of alliance for double thronged attacks on the undesirably strong neighbour ! The spoils of wars will be divided among “allies” according to their contributions.

It is known that 2000 years ago, China has reached distant countries like Persia, various non-united nomadic countries in Siberia. The purpose was not purely for trading. It was to keep open the possibilities for alliance against immediate neighbours of the empire.

4. Applications.

Vietnam (Annam in Chinese history) was never a Chinese land and has revolted against Chinese occupations. China used to ally itself with the Southern neighbours of Vietnam (Champa some 400 years ago, and Khmer Rouge recently) for many plans for double pronged attack on Vietnam.

India is a Southern neighbour of China. The method calls for an alliance with Sri Lanka and provoking wars between the two harmonious neighbours India and Sri Lanka.

Burma has a common boundary with China. Its national cohesion is declining. The country would be a suitable candidate for application of China’s all three policies of Forever Expanding, Strike-then-Consolate, Allying to Distant Powers to Subjugate Immediate Neighbours. A suitable ally for China would be some revolting Minorities in the South (see [5]).

North Korea is a neighbour of China but historically had fought against China. Its is always on guard against China surprise overrun (Tibet typed operation). China makes pressure on it by opening trade with its Capitalist opponent South Korea. China may also ally with the US to attack and occupy North Korea at some convenient time. Territorial gains would have to be kept by China as the huge occupation army would logically be Chinese. (This whole paragraph was written before 05 April 2017 and publish before the meeting between US and Chinese leaders in 06 April 2017. Events after publication date now unfold almost exactly along these predictions.)

[1]. tonytran2015, understanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours, https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/01/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours/

[2]. tonytran2015, understanding-the-strike-then-consolate-tactic, https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-the-strike-then-consolate-tactic/

[3]. Sima Qian, Records of History by the grand historian (translated by Burton Watson), Qin Dynasty, Han Dynasty I (Rev. Ed.) and Han Dynasty II (Rev. Ed.), the Res. Cent. for Transl. The Chinese Univ. of Hon Kong and Colubia Univ. Press, Hong Kong and New York, 1961.

[4]. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. First published in Chinese before 200BC. There are English translations.

[5]. myanmar and china are almost at war, http://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2017/01/03/myanmar-and-china-are-almost-at-war/

Added after 2018 July 31st:

[6]. https://counterinformation.wordpress.com/2018/07/31/isis-is-a-us-israeli-creation-top-ten-indications/


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Understanding the Strike-then-Consolate Tactic.

Understanding the Strike-then-Consolate Tactic

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.59).

#Foreign affair, #Militarized diplomacy, #Aggression, #Strike then Consolate, #Mutual Cooperations, #Phillipines, #China, #South China Sea.

The current (1990 to 2017) situation on the Scarborough Shoal (Dao Vanh Khan as claimed by Vietnam) in the Sea of West Phillipines is interesting ([2,3]), It offers an example of the Tactic of Strike-then-Consolate in “mititarized diplomacy”.

Its resultant “mutual cooperations” are then revealed as only part of a long term plan for further aggression.

1. Concept of Strike-then-Consolate.

The aggressor nation finds an opportunity to attack the victim nation and makes territorial gains. Right after that, before international reaction can develop, the aggressor offers to give back half the gains to make peace with the weaker victim. The weak victim may accept that offer if it cannot rely on internarional help or if its unpopular leader wants to make external peace to have time to strengthen his grip on domestic power (that is its leader sacrifies national interests to further his own personal gains).

The cycle may be repeated many times to make a vacillating nation out of the victim to isolate it from its allies.

2. Application of Strike-then-Consolate.

2a. The aggressor nation looks for a neighbour with unpopular leader. Failing that it may make one by promoting corruptions, non-transparent dealings in that country to weaken the popular support for its government.

2b. When popular support of the government of the intended victim nation has reached a low point, the aggressor creates economic, environmental, social chaos to brew anti-government protests, uprisals and revolts.

2c. The defence of the victim nation is then dispirited and weakened.

2d. A quick military attack is carried out for territorial gains.

2e. A peace delegate is immediately sent to the victim nation to offer peace with the return of half of the territorial gains together with some economic aids! “Mutual Cooperations” are part of the package of economic “aids” by the aggressor to its victim.

2f. The victim nation then consolates itself that it can get benefit from “Mutual Cooperation” with its aggressor and demotes its effective but hard line leaders in its defence force.

2g. The aggressor then executes its planned follow up military strike while the defence force of the victim has no established effective leader.

2h. The victim nation then desperately search for new leaders for its defence forces and demotes its team of “Mutual Cooperation” advocates.

2i. The whole cycle (2e, 2f, 2g, 2h) is then repeated again and again so that the government of the victim nation is worn out and lose any of its remaining credibility through conflicting policies, continual reorganization, demotion and rehabitation of its personels. Any ally of the victim nation would not stick around with such a vacillating nation.

2j. When the government of the victim nation has lost its popular support, strength and credibility, the aggressor may take over its victim overtly or covertly.

(Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it._George Santayana)

3. “Mutual Cooperations” are never a fair deal.

“Mutual cooperations” from the aggressor always require from the victim nation the following conditions:

3a. Not to take the aggressor to any international authority.

3b. The victim nation giving unaccountable benefits to its deal makers (that is giving high rewards to those who favors the deal).

3c. The victim nation allowing personels of the aggressor to be in vital future positions.

3d. The victim nation demoting fervent nationalists in its defence force.

3e. The victim nation ceasing most of its defence industrial plans.

3f. The victim nation reorganizing its government and development plans to suit the aggressor.

4. So what are Mutual Cooperations in reality?

Mutual Cooperations are only a conditional surrender to the aggressor.

Sun Tzu [1] said that the best victory is a victory gained without using the army!

[1]. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. First published in Chinese before 200BC.

(The following are augmented after 09 May 2017).
[2]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2017/05/09/manila-beijing-dating-again-who-is-the-screwer-screwed/

[3]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2017/04/22/philippines-china-south-china-row-talk-of-establishing-a-no-take-zone-apparently-to-counter-chinas-talk-and-take-strategy/

Added after 2017 November:

[4]. https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_Santayana

[5]. https://us-issues.com/2017/11/16/south-china-sea-feud/

[6]. https://joeam.com/2018/02/16/how-do-we-get-out-of-this-mess/

[7]. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349

[8]. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3341308-bbc-vietnam-scraps-south-china-sea-drilling-project-amid-chinese-pressure

[9]. https://www.theguardian.com/world/south-china-sea

[10]. https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/xi-reviews-navy-might-in-contested-waters-of-south-china-sea-20180413-p4z9f0.html

[11]. http://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/04/12/18/us-displays-military-muscle-as-carrier-sails-in-south-china-sea

[9]. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21290349

[10]. https://bcnn1wp.wordpress.com/2018/04/15/japan-and-chinas-foreign-ministers-pledge-to-improve-ties-between-their-nations/

[11]. https://vikinglifeblog.wordpress.com/2018/05/07/china-builds-peaceful-missile-launchers-in-south-china-sea/

[12]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/05/13/south-china-sea-the-philippines-sees-a-growing-reality-we-are-the-ones-who-are-being-left-behind-here/

[13]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/05/19/chinas-bombers-in-south-china-sea-can-hit-any-target-in-the-philippines/

[14]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/05/08/philippines-learns-a-hard-lesson-about-china-china-does-whatever-china-pleases/


[15]. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-26/chinese-tech-company-huawei-sponsors-politicians-trips/9907064

[16]. https://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-andrew-robb-took-880k-china-job-as-soon-as-he-left-parliament-20170602-gwje3e.html

[17]. https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/12/china-stooge-robb-gets-comeuppance/


[18]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/09/10/china-poised-to-win-major-victory-in-sea-dispute-with-help-of-philippine-resources-deal/



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Understanding China’s perpetual wars against its neighbours.

Understanding China’s perpetual wars against its neighbours

by tonytran2015 (Melbourne, Australia).

Click here for a full, up to date ORIGINAL ARTICLE and to help fighting the stealing of readers’ traffic.

(Blog No.58).

#Chinese expansionism, #China, #expansion, #war, #US, #Japan.

This blog explains to Westerners the politics of East Asia which seems incomprehensible to them but not that incomprehensible to East Asians.

1. Origin of policy of Forever Expanding.

Since Han’s time (200+ BC), at his Coronation, every Emperor of China must swear to forever expand the territories of the Chinese Empire (in direct contrast to the pledge of non-aggression of Western Empires).

The Forever Expanding policy is called Silkworms Eating the Berry Leaves since the Qin Dynasty (preceding the Han Dynasty) (see reference [1]).

The vast area of current China is the result of such Forever Expanding policy starting from a Zhou dynasty (1046BC-256BC) with an area only comparable to Japan.

Zhou_dynasty_1000_BC Châu

Figure: The approximate territory of the Zhou dynasty in China. Drawn by Ian Kiu.The approximate territory of the Zhou dynasty in China. Drawn by Ian Kiu. Derived from China_map.png by Nat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhou_dynasty#/media/File:Zhou_dynasty_1000_BC.png Date 15 February 2011, Territories_of_Dynasties_in_China.gif: Albert Herrmann (1935). History and Commercial Atlas of China. Harvard University Press. from “The Chou Dynasty, 11th-9th Centuries B.C.” Author Territories_of_Dynasties_in_China.gif: Ian Kiu. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.

The Zhou empire had two powerful nominally vassal states Chu and Qin (one of Qin’s successor kings usurped the Zhou’s last emperor to become Emperor Qin Shih Huang De).

Figure: China Map, Qin State, 260BCE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qin_(state)#/media/File:EN-QIN260BCE.jpg , Date 31 October 2010
Source Own work, Author Philg88, Licensing
Creative Commons attribution share alike. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported, 2.5 Generic, 2.0 Generic and 1.0 Generic license.

Figure: Map of Three Kingdoms period of China, as of 262 A.D., Date1 1 August 2017, Author SY, file https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Three_Kingdoms.png. File is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.

Figure: Map of Song Dynasty 1141, By Ian Kiu, Based on a map in Albert Herrmann (1935). History and Commercial Atlas of China, Harvard University Press , file https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jin%E2%80%93Song_Wars#/media/File:Sung_Dynasty_1141.png. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.

Figure: Map of Qing Dynasty China in 1765., File: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/18_century_Qing_China.png . Date 1-8-2011 Source Originally from CIA, taken from commons. Author CIA (Background map) Derivate work: User:Soewinhan. This image is a work of a Central Intelligence Agency employee, taken or made as part of that person’s official duties. As a Work of the United States Government, this image or media is in the public domain in the United States.

Figure: Map of China on a Chinese glass Globe made around the year 2000.

2. Methods of upholding the pledge.

2a. The Chinese Emperor is expected to carry out overt aggression on any unprepared neighbour. No causis bellum is required. There is no place for Morality in Chinese Foreign Affairs policy: The winner is the Moral Authority! Winning the unprovoked war is the highest objective of “Chinese Morality (or Immorality?)”.

2b. If overt aggression has no chance to succeed, the Emperor has to subvert to weaken his neighbours with corruptions and unfair trade practices (economic sabotage and graftings are standard practice).

2c.The Chinese Emperor declares that he is the sole Son of Heaven and communicates all sovereign matters to Heaven. All neighbours have to communicate through him. He will abuse this role to aggravate internal wars on successions in neighbour countries. He will then use his “Representative Authority of Heaven” to stage occupation wars on neighbour countries under the pretext of upholding Heavenly Order.

The revered, 2000 years old manual “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu is always practiced by China. It considers military attacks, foreign affairs and trades as only different facets of one single thing. (This is not much different from the view by Clausewitz[3])

3. Application of the “Forever Expanding” policy.

Strategically China IS at perpetual war with every of its neighbours (including Russia) and distant powers (including USA). Technically, China try NOT to declare or be declared at war!

Its strategy is to wear down opponents psychologically with successive alternating cycles of military threats, propaganda, then trade wars and then offers of “mutual cooperations” until any one of its opponents is psychologically worn out, weakened enough for singling out, isolated and over-run with a surprise attack by its huge army. The strategy is more than 2000 years old but is still effective.

Its offer of “mutual cooperations” (such as currently to the Phillipines) is actually part of an attack plan, as it wears down the opponent with chaos and loss caused by continual reorientations.

Western leaders DON’T know that strategy but Japaneses and East Asians know it well. China is more worried about a half-armed Japan than about a fully armed US! (Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it._George Santayana).


[1]. Sima Qian, Records of History by the grand historian (translated by Burton Watson), Qin Dynasty, Han Dynasty I (Rev. Ed.) and Han Dynasty II (Rev. Ed.), the Res. Cent. for Transl. The Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong and Colubia Univ. Press, Hong Kong and New York, 1961.

[2]. Sun Tzu, The Art of War. First published in Chinese before 200BC.
[3]. Carl von Clausewitz, Principles of Wars, Translated by Hans W. Gatzke, The Military Service Publishing Company, 1942.
[4]. Clausewitz, On War, Translated by Colonel James John Graham N. Trübner, London, 1873. Original is Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege, Dümmlers Verlag, Berlin, 1832.
[5]. Carl von Clausewitz, Principles of Wars, The Clausewitz home page, https://www.clausewitz.com/mobile/principlesofwar.htm
The following have been added after 09 May 2017.
[6]. chinese-ucsd-students-protest-unreasonable-dalai-lama-invite-paid-by-red china,
[7]. http://www.capoliticalreview.com/capoliticalnewsandviews/chinese-ucsd-students-protest-unreasonable-dalai-lama-invite-paid-by-red-china/
[8]. https://us-issues.com/2017/11/17/to-counter-china-india-pushes-east/
[9]. https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_Santayana

[10]. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarim_mummies

[11]. https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/38408261/china-island-expansion-moves-ahead-in-south-china-sea/

Added after 2017 December:

[12]. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-42232178

[13]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhou_dynasty

[14]. https://kousdas.wordpress.com/2018/01/13/doesnt-india-vie-for-others-territories/

[15]. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Military_Classics

[16]. http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-20/south-china-sea-australian-warships-challenged-by-chinese/9677908

[17]. https://us-issues.com/2018/05/08/what-beijing-is-building-in-the-south-china-sea/

[18]. https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/what-beijing-building-south-china-sea?utm_campaign=B2C%20|%20Newsletter%20|%20050218%20|%20ChinaSea&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=62596681&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_v4RqK9rrPAUsqz1jHgPlvidsf4K6WBmEJQbx2jZFzTIouD4UfVgX9SyPZ9NH40PrDxCLyf2X7Prv41ZaZc3bLCLGBrswoH4eaZZq6G5cIOzflrI8&_hsmi=62596714

[19]. https://thedefenstar.com/2018/05/19/china-to-use-taiwan-as-a-nuclear-and-conventional-military-base-to-isolate-india-japan-us-lawmaker/

[20]. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-22/fbi-cia-sound-alarm-over-china-cold-war-wray-says-most-significant-threat-facing-us

[21]. https://straightlinelogic.com/2018/09/01/doug-casey-on-chinas-exploitation-of-africa/

[22]. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-uighur-muslims-re-education-camps-detention-xinjiang-a8515631.html

[23]. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/aug/07/why-uighur-muslims-across-china-are-living-in-fear

[24]. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-26414014

[25]. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/china-pathologizing-uighur-muslims-mental-illness/568525/

[26]. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-45364689

[27]. https://johnib.wordpress.com/2018/09/29/vietnam-taiwan-malaysia-and-the-philippines-struggle-to-understand-chinas-views-on-law-sovereignty/

[28]. https://wentworthreport.com/2018/10/23/swap-russia-for-china-and-were-again-at-war-its-just-a-cold-fact/

They were found by a Chinese team that was led by Professor Zhaoyu Zhu of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and included Professor Robin Dennell of Exeter University. The tools were discovered at a locality called Shangchen in the southern Chinese Loess Plateau. The oldest are ca. 2.12 million years old, and are c. 270,000 years older than the 1.85 million year old skeletal remains and stone tools from Dmanisi, Georgia, which were previously the earliest evidence of humanity outside Africa.

[29]. https://scientificinquirer.com/2018/08/31/artifacts-found-in-china-revises-date-humans-arrived-in-asia/



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